Premier League Cheat Sheet: Weekend football tips, stats and offers
Welcome to BettingOdds.com’s weekend ‘cheat sheet’, where I’ll be bringing you five of my top football betting tips for the upcoming Premier League action. Below, you’ll find my plays for Gameweek 6, alongside justification for each selection.
Top three over 2.5 goals plays this weekend according to the stats
In a season that has been flooded with goals, betting on the over 2.5 goals market has never been more profitable. Only one game has resulted in a 0-0 scoreline so far - West Brom's dismal stalemate with Burnley on Monday night - with an array of fixtures ending in more than three, four, five or even six goals! It's been a pleasure for us all to watch, and this week I'm taking a look at the over 2.5 goals market to bring you some potentially lucrative selections for your weekend's accumulators.
My over 2.5 goals tips for this week are as follows:
Man Utd v Chelsea - 8/13
- 100% of Utd's league games have resulted in over 2.5 goals this season
- 4/5 of Chelsea's league games have resulted in over 2.5 goals this season
- Utd have scored 10 goals in their last two PL games, Chelsea have scored 7 in theirs
Arsenal v Leicester - 8/11
- 80% of both side's league games this season have resulted in an over 2.5 goals scoreline
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy should return from injury for this one; expect him to be chomping at the bit to find the net following a lay-off, thus improving the chances of an increase in goals
- Leicester have also been really poor at the back recently, conceding four goals in their last two games, so I can see Arsenal scoring a couple here
Brighton v West Brom - 4/5
- All but one of Brighton's five league games this season have seen more than two goals scored overall
- West Brom have been poor at the back so far, conceding 13 goals in 5 games, so I expect Brighton to forge an opening at the Amex especially given the form of striker Neal Maupay (4 goals in 5)
- 3/5 of WBA's league games have ended in over 2.5 goals this season
goals, goals, goals
2020-2021 edition
19 october 2020
1. Serie A *** 3.74 (38 games - 142 goals)
2. Premier League *** 3.72 (46 - 171)
3. Bundesliga *** 3.08 (36 - 111)
4. Ligue 1 *** 2.79 (70 - 195)
5. La Liga *** 2.15 (53 - 114)
In the notebook: Top four Premier League games for cards
It's been raining cards in the top-flight so far, and I've picked out three of the weekend's fixtures which could see a flurry of bookings distributed based on how many cards these individual teams have picked up already.
Fulham v Crystal Palace
- Rock-bottom Fulham lead the way for yellow cards so far with 13, that will be set to increase in this all-London affair especially if the hosts become frustrated trying to break down a well-drilled Palace back-line
- Palace have picked up 9 bookings in 5 games and have offenders like Luka Milivojevic playing, who is always usually good for a card
- Wilfried Zaha will be playing - need I say any more? The Ivory Coast international is a foul-magnet and should draw in a booking or two here
Newcastle v Wolves
- Newcastle have picked up 12 yellows in 5 games (avg. 2.4 per game) - only Fulham have more
- Adama Traore should feature in this one and, like Zaha, often draws in bookings from opposing full-backs who struggle to cope with his pace
Burnley v Tottenham
- Burnley have averaged 13.8 fouls p.g this season - the joint-second most in the PL - and picked up 8 bookings in 4 games
- Tottenham have averaged 14.4 fouls p.g this season - no side has averaged more
Over 3 cards in each of those three matches pays: 8/1 with bet365
Strikers on form: Three goalscorers to keep an eye on in Gameweek 6
Danny Ings vs Everton - 1/1 (EVS) anytime
- Ings has started the season typically brightly, scoring 4 goals in 5 and achieving a 40% goal conversion rate
- Confidence will be high following his goal against Chelsea last weekend
Neal Maupay vs West Brom - 1/1 (EVS) anytime
- Like Ings, Maupay has begun the season well with 4 goals in 5
- Up against a shaky West Brom defence who have conceded the joint-most goals in the PL so far (13)
Patrick Bamford vs Aston Villa - 2/1 anytime
- 3 goals in 5 apps has seen Bamford start the campaign well, I'm expecting him to cause Villa some problems this weekend
- 2/1 is a good price for a striker in good form to score anytime, I like the look of this play at those odds
Treble pays 11/1 with Paddy Power
Ref watch: Three card-happy ref's to look out for this weekend
Jonathan Moss - Brighton v West Brom
- Has distributed 14 yellows in 3 games this season (28.3 fouls p.g) - the fourth-highest out of any ref
Graham Scott - Fulham v Crystal Palace
- Has only taken charge of one game so far but gave out 4 yellows and a red in it - expect a similar situation at Selhurst Park, especially with Wilfried Zaha in action
Michael Oliver - Burnley v Tottenham
- 13 yellows and one red in 5 games isn't too shabby for Oliver, who will be tasked with controlling a physical Burnley side up against some tricky Spurs players on Monday evening
Pick of the weekend: Toffees to edge close-knit affair on the south coast
Everton remain top of the table following their dramatic 2-2 draw with rivals Liverpool last weekend, but they face a stiff test this weekend when they travel down to St Mary's to take on a Southampton side who have also picked up form of late.
The Saints played out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Chelsea last weekend and currently sit 12th in the standings, with front man Danny Ings yet again firing on all cylinders with four goals to his name so far. This will be a test for Ancelotti's men, but one which I think they will prevail in narrowly. I expect both teams to find the net here, but am swaying towards an Everton win come full-time.
Everton win & BTTS is priced at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
Longshot bet of the week
My longshot for the weekend comes in the form of a tasty looking 17/1 treble with Paddy Power, consisting of two draws and a win.
Aston Villa v Leeds, draw - 12/5
- There's little to separate these two sides heading into this one, I can see them cancelling each other out here with both sides showing good strength at the back and a great deal of firepower in the final third
Fulham v Crystal Palace, draw - 21/10
- Fulham showed a marked improvement last weekend against Sheffield United; I can see them getting something out of this clash but Palace won't be easy to break down and have recorded a mixed bag of results so far (two wins, two defeats and a draw) - at 21/10 I like the look of the draw
Wolves to beat Newcastle - 8/11
- Wolves enter this match-up in good form having won their last two games against Fulham and Leeds. Newcastle head into this game on the back of a 4-1 thumping against Manchester United so I see the hosts having a good foothold here on home soil.
The best Premier League offers this weekend:
