US Presidential Election Odds 2024: Donald Trump the favourite for a White House return

It may still be over six months until the 2024 US Presidential Election but the campaigning is already in full swing. We've taken a look at the latest odds for November's election. 

As so often the case, it looks set to be a two-way battle between the main parties, the more liberal Democrats and the conservative-leaning Republicans.

Democrat Joe Biden is the Presidential incumbent after beating Republican Donald Trump in 2020 and is eligible to serve a second four-year term.

The 2024 election will be on November 5 and the winner will take office in early January 2025.

How does the US Presidential Election work?

The candidates aim to win electoral college votes. These are proportionally divided state-by-state based on population and there are 538 up for grabs, meaning the winning candidate needs to claim 270.

Therefore, voters decide at state level, with the outcome of those contests elevated to national significance. This can cause issues, for instance, when Democrat Hillary Clinton polled the most votes nationally but still lost to Trump in 2016.

Most states also lean heavily one way. Traditionally Democratic-leaning areas such as Massachusetts and Washington are known as Blue states, while those that tend to favour the Republicans, like Texas and Kansas, are labelled Red. 

There are also 'swing states' that tend to shift their support between elections and are where the candidates are likely to spend the final few days of campaigning to earn potentially decisive votes. Biden took both Georgia and Arizona from Trump to help him get into the White House in 2020. 

Who is the favourite for the US Presidential election?

To outsiders, the election process appears a complicated affair, but it is usually fought between the two main parties.

The bookmakers currently have the Democrats and the Republicans neck-and-neck at around Evens to win the election, with Independent 33/1. Theodore Roosevelt famously finished second to Democrat Woodrow Wilson running as an Independent progressive candidate in 1912, while billionaire Texan Ross Perot gained a respectable 19 per cent of the popular vote when Bill Clinton beat George Bush Sr in 1992.

It is most likely that either the Democrats or the Republicans will be in the White House. Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and is trading at around 5/4 to retain his position after winning enough support in March's primaries. His predecessor Trump is 6/5 to reclaim his seat in the Oval Office after seeing off his last remaining challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

They are both currently known as 'Presumptive Nominees', with their nominations expected to be confirmed at their respective parties' annual conventions in the summer.

There is also a high-profile Independent, Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew of former president John F Kennedy, who is a general 28/1 for the presidency.

In losing to Biden in 2020, Trump became the first president since Bush Sr to serve a single term and the incumbent's status as the calm, yet progressive candidate compared to his more rambunctious rival could see him voted in again.

Who will be vice-president?

Biden has also confirmed that Vice President Kamala Harris will return as his running mate if he gets the nomination, but Trump is still to decide who will be his right-hand person and potentially serve as his vice president.

There look to be four remaining candidates with a realistic chance. Kristi Noem and Elise Stefanik are the outsiders, with Tim Scott and Tulsi Gabbard the favourites.

Scott is the Republican party's only black senator and was name-checked by Trump in a recent interview, saying they are "compatible" and that their relationship is not "forced". 

His policy and rhetoric appear to align with Trump and at 7/2 he could be worth considering ahead of 13/2 Gabbard in the Republican VP betting.