Southampton vs. Newcastle Predictions: Two stats based bets for the clash at St Mary's

There are four Premier League games being played on Thursday evening and we've tasked Scott Thornton to analyse Southampton v Newcastle and provide us with his two best bets. 

Newcastle have been surrounded by optimism since the Saudi consortium struck a deal to buy the club from Mike Ashley, and the optimism has started to creep on to the pitch as the team have successfully navigated their way away from the relegation zone.

The Toon were certainly busy in the January transfer window and it seems they have done some very good business. Eddie Howe has done a great job in knitting the team together after a torrid start to his reign, but the Englishman is starting to prove himself as the man to lead Newcastle into their new era next season. The Geordies are currently seven points clear of the drop and it’s hard to envisage them being dragged back into the relegation scrap when you consider their form, and the form of the teams below them. Newcastle are unbeaten in the league since their trip to the Etihad before Christmas. Since then, they’ve won five and drawn two Premier League matches.

Southampton’s good  run of form came to an end with a bang in their last match, as they succumbed to a 4-0 thumping away to Aston Villa. Their unbeaten run prior to that saw them draw 1-1 to league leader’s Man City and win away at Tottenham Hotspur. The Saints are now comfortably positioned in midtable and have very little to play for in terms of league position until the end of the season, but the manager will be keen to ensure that the performance levels don’t drop from now until the end of May.

Southampton have been a largely good team to back for corners in recent weeks (with the exception of their game against West Ham) but I think the overall match corner line provides more value here.

Southampton’s last five home matches are averaging over 11 corners per game. Newcastle’s last five away matches are also averaging over 11 corners per game and the nature of this game should lend itself from attacking play to facilitate corners from both teams. Neither has any real worry of relegation in the closing months of the season and both will be keen to put on a show.

When these teams met earlier in the season, the goals were flowing as it finished 2-2. Newcastle have acquired a few big names since then and have been displaying their new found attacking threat in recent weeks. 

Southampton drew a blank in their last game against Villa, but it was the first time they had failed to find the net in 13 games and they will be keen to avoid so they should show some attacking impetus from the first whistle. Newcastle have scored in all 8 of their league games this calendar, so hopefully the attacking capabilities can help us land our longer odds bet here.

The meeting earlier in the season also saw 11 shots on target in the match; five for Newcastle and six for Southampton.

2022 P/L - + 1.8u