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Premier League Top-Four Betting: A look at the odds ahead of the 2021/2022 campaign

Leicester City have missed out on a top-four finish in the last week of the season in the two previous campaigns and are 3/1 change that in 2021/2022
Leicester City have missed out on a top-four finish in the last week of the season in the two previous campaigns and are 3/1 change that in 2021/2022

The countdown is on to the start of the new Premier League season and bookmakers have released odds for who will finish in the top-four in 2021/2022. Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea were the four that made the Champions League spots last term and judging by this year's prices, plenty of firms fancy a repeat. We’ve taken a look at the market below with the odds quoted from Paddy Power.

Manchester City - 1/33

At 1/33 there's a 97.1% implied probability that Manchester City will finish inside the top-four this season and quite frankly when you look at the strength that their squad possesses it's easy to see why. 

The last time that City failed to finish in the top-four was all the way back in the 2009/2010 season when Roberto Mancini took over from Mark Hughes in December. The five-time Premier League Champions are still yet to open their enormous cheque book this summer and should Harry Kane or Jack Grealish make the switch, it will only bolster their chances of winning another title. It’s hard not to see City in the top-four come the end of May although it’s worth remembering they have lost 15 games over the last two seasons in comparison to just six in the two seasons before.

Chelsea - 1/4

Most bookmakers have Chelsea as joint second-favourites with Liverpool at around 5/1 to claim the first league title since 2017 under Antonio Conte. The Blues are just 1/4 to finish in the top-four this season after a strong showing in the second half of the last campaign with coach Thomas Tuchel masterminding a remarkable Champions League triumph.

Trophies like that are music to the ears of Roman Abramovich who is yet to open his gigantic war chest and splash the cash this summer. Erling Haaland is still odds-on at 10/11 with Sky Bet to join Chelsea before September 3, but at 1/4 for a top-four finish, it’s not a price we would be rushing to back.

Liverpool - 3/10

There’s plenty of question marks around how Liverpool will perform this season after they received one of the worst runs of injuries that has been seen in the Premier League era as time and time again their defence was whittled down to the bare bones.

Diogo Jota and Virgil Van Dijk are the most notable players who will be returning after long term spells on the sidelines last term and both can have a huge say. It’s easy to forget that up until December last season, the Reds had not been beaten at home in three and a half years in the Premier League and they have the ability to challenge City once again. 

Premier League Top-4 Odds

Manchester United - 4/11

It’s been rather unusual this summer to see Manchester United act in a less panicked manner in the transfer window with the signing of Rapheal Varane appearing to be nearly over the line, priced at 1/20 to happen. The signing of Jadon Sancho also looks a good bit of business and with 41 Bundesliga assists over the last three seasons his creativity and service will be welcome from forwards such as Edinson Cavani.

It’s hard to argue that on paper that United have one of the strongest sides in the league and their victory at the Etihad at the back end of the campaign should give them belief that they can challenge. The 9/1 for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side to win the league may well shorten slightly in the coming weeks with further transfers, however they can be backed at 4/11 this season for a top-four finish.

Leicester - 3/1

Quite remarkably, last season Leicester City missed out on a top-four finish in the final week of the season for the second year in a row. This time round, there was the consolation of an FA Cup trophy for Brendan Rodgers and his side but the thought of no Champions League football after spending the majority of the season in the qualification places must have hurt over the break.

The Foxes have strengthened their group with the signings of Patson Daka from RB Salzburg, Ryan Bertrand from Southampton and Boubakary Soumare from Lille. 3/1 is on offer for those who fancy Leicester to make it third time lucky and get over the final hurdle and reach the Champions League, however consistency in the final third of the season will be key having slowed at that stage on the last two occasions.

Tottenham - 10/3

Spurs finished seventh in the standings last season, one point and one place above Arsenal. At the end of June the club appointed Nuno Espirito Santo as their new manager and it will be interesting to see if he can get a tune out of the players after a rather disappointing second half to last season.

The main question for Spurs is whether or not their new manager will have the services of Harry Kane available or not. The 27-year-old finished with the most goals (23) and most assists in the league last term and until we know his future we would hold off any bets around Spurs with them currently being 10/3 for a top-four finish.

Arsenal - 7/2

The Gunners can be backed at 7/2 for a top-four finish this season, although they must improve in front of goal are they to do so. Alexandre Lacazette finished as the clubs top league scorer with 13 goals which was the lowest for Arsenal since 2008-2009 when Robin van Persie only managed 10. Improvement needed.

West Ham - 9/1

David Moyes deserves a huge amount of credit for taking West Ham to a sixth-place finish last season with the Hammers challenging for the top-four until the final week of the season. Just two points separated Chelsea in fourth and West Ham in sixth last season and it will be interesting to see if they try and bring in any big names this summer after the departure of Felipe Anderson.

Leeds - 11/1

Another manager who enjoyed a fruitful 2020/21 campaign was Marcelo Bielsa of Leeds who guided his side to a top-half finish in ninth. 24-year-old left-back Junior Firpo has been brought in for £13m from Barcelona and will help replace Ezgjan Alioski who has departed the club. A top four-finish looks a little ambitious for Leeds at 11/1 and we’d be more inclined to consider backing a more achievable top-six finish if wanting to get behind Bielsa’s boys.

Brighton - 11/1

On first glance we 11/1 does look fairly short for Brighton to make the top-four this season. Graham Potter’s side are known for attractive football and creating high xG figures and looking back at last season, if we sort the 20 sides by expected points (xP) they rank fifth. Expected points measures the number of points a team could have expected to have taken from a game, based on the scoring opportunities (xG)  that they created and conceded in that game.

Everton 11/1

Few would have predicted Everton to be the same price as Brighton for a top-four finish after The Toffees topped the table after four games last season under Carlo Ancelotti. Rafa Benitez is now at the helm to the disappointment of some Everton fans, but at 11/1 they make more appeal here than plenty of the other sides at similar prices in the market.

Aston Villa - 14/1

Dean Smith’s beloved Aston Villa are the only other side priced at less than 20/1 in the top-four market with 14/1 being on offer for them to finish in the Champions League places. A lot depends on the future of Jack Grealish for Villa and again we’d be waiting until that saga is over before taking any prices.

See the full market for all 20 teams below. 

Premier League Top-4 Odds

Manchester City
WIN PROB: 94%
1
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Chelsea
WIN PROB: 80%
1
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1/4
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1/4
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1/4
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1/4
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1/4
£40 FREE BET
1/5
Liverpool
WIN PROB: 77%
1
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1/4
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1/4
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1/4
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1/4
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2/9
Manchester United
WIN PROB: 74%
1
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2/7
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2/7
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2/7
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2/7
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2/7
Leicester City
WIN PROB: 18%
1
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9/2
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9/2
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9/2
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7/2
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3/1
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3/1
Tottenham Hotspur
WIN PROB: 15%
1
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5/1
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9/2
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4/1
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4/1
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Arsenal
WIN PROB: 17%
1
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5/1
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9/2
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9/2
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7/2
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7/2
Everton
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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9/1
West Ham United
WIN PROB: 7%
1
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9/1
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9/1
Leeds
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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Brighton & Hove Albion
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Southampton
WIN PROB: 2%
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Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 1%
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Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Burnley
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Brentford
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Watford
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Norwich
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Odds correct as of 2021-07-27 05:15 Odds subject to change.
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