Premier League Sack Race 2025/26 Odds: Daniel Farke installed as the early favourite

Predicting the first managerial casualty in the Premier League is rarely straightforward, and the bookmakers don’t always get it right.

Take the 2024/25 season, for example. Eddie Howe and Nuno Espírito Santo were among the early favourites in the Premier League Sack Race. Yet Howe went on to fire Newcastle to League Cup success and secured Champions League qualification, while Santo’s Nottingham Forest spent much of the campaign in the top four before eventually finishing seventh and earning a spot in the Conference League.

Now, with the 2025/26 Premier League season fast approaching, the latest odds are out, which we've broken down below.

Premier League Sack Race 2025/26 Odds: The Favourites

We've run through the top-5 contenders in the betting - plus five outsiders - according to the early odds from Bet Victor, talkSPORT BET, and Betano.

Daniel Farke (Leeds): 7/2

Daniel Farke has been installed as the 7/2 favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked.

Despite guiding Leeds to the Championship title in dramatic fashion on the final day, speculation earlier this summer suggested the club were considering a change at the top. While those rumours ultimately came to nothing, questions remain over Farke’s Premier League record.

The German has twice earned promotion with Norwich, but his top-flight track record is worrying: just six wins from 49 games, with 35 defeats to his name.

Keith Andrews (Brentford): 4/1

Keith Andrews, priced at 4/1, is something of an unknown quantity as the only manager on this list yet to take charge of a single competitive match.

Brentford clearly see potential, having promoted him internally to succeed Thomas Frank. On the plus side, Andrews already has strong relationships within the squad, and it’s worth remembering that the club struck gold the last time they promoted from within, with Frank himself.

Regis Le Bris (Sunderland): 5/1

Regis Le Bris is a hero at Sunderland after he led the Black Cats into the Premier League, via the play-offs, in his first season in charge.

It was a similar story at Southampton in 2023/24 when Russell Martin fired the Saints up via the play-offs only to be given the boot 16 league games into last season.

Bookmakers aren’t holding out much hope for Sunderland’s survival either, pricing them at 1/3 for relegation and 6/4 to finish bottom.

Scott Parker (Burnley): 6/1

Scott Parker was the unfortunate 'winner' of the Premier League Sack Race in 2022/23, when he was shown the door by Bournemouth after a humiliating 9-0 defeat at Anfield.

A brief and unsuccessful stint at Club Brugge followed, but Parker has since rebuilt his reputation at Burnley, leading them to a third Premier League promotion of his managerial career.

Burnley were outstanding defensively last season, conceding just 16 goals in 46 games en route to a second-place finish. That same resilience will be vital if they’re to avoid a repeat of their 2023/24 top-flight struggles.

Nuno Santo (Nottingham Forest): 12/1

Arne Slot may have lifted the title, but many neutrals would argue that Nuno Espírito Santo was the standout manager of the 2024/25 Premier League season. Defying expectations, he kept Nottingham Forest in the hunt for a Champions League spot for much of the campaign before ultimately securing 7th place and a return to European competition for the first time this century.

While the Conference League will bring fresh excitement to the City Ground, it also presents new challenges, particularly the demands of a busier fixture schedule. Forest’s impressive season hasn’t gone unnoticed either, with Anthony Elanga already snapped up by Newcastle, and Morgan Gibbs-White heavily linked with a move to Tottenham.

As for Nuno, he's just penned a new three-year contract, although he'll still be keen to avoid a stuttering start.

Five Dark Horses To Keep An Eye On

As for potential outsiders in the betting, here are five other managers to keep an eye on.

Ruben Amorim (Man Utd): 16/1

Ruben Amorim will be under immense pressure from the off with a daunting start that includes clashes against Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool in the opening eight fixtures.

Initially touted as the man to revitalise the club, Amorim's debut campaign fell far short of expectations - managing just seven wins from 27 Premier League matches, with 14 defeats, as United slumped to 15th, their worst finish since 1974/75.

Having been the first top-flight club to sack a manager last season - parting ways with Erik ten Hag in October - United could be quick to act again if the side continues where they left off last term; at an appealing 16/1, Amorim is sure to have his backers.

Graham Potter (West Ham): 16/1

Graham Potter hasn’t yet made the impact many hoped for at West Ham. His predecessor, Julen Lopetegui, lasted just 22 games - the shortest managerial reign in the club’s history - and Potter’s own 18-month contract suggests the board are keeping expectations measured.

If Potter's project is to gain long-term traction, he will need to give fans something to believe in, such as a clear identity, tangible progress, and results that spark real excitement - none of which have been evident so far.

Enzo Maresca (Chelsea): 20/1

Chelsea’s 2024/25 campaign looked to be unravelling before a strong finish saw them secure Champions League football and lift the Conference League trophy. Now, they’re just one game away from winning the Club World Cup - a potential landmark achievement for manager Enzo Maresca.

However, history shows that stability is rarely a luxury at Stamford Bridge. With Chelsea’s notoriously short managerial leash, Maresca at 20/1 could tempt those expecting turbulence at the start of the new campaign following a long summer and 2024/25 season.

Thomas Frank (Tottenham): 25/1

Thomas Frank, 25/1, spent a very successful seven years at Brentford. In the same time span, Spurs stormed through five permanent managers and a few caretakers.

The controversial Daniel Levy is never shy in wielding the axe, having done so on multiple elite managers, while Ange Postecoglou lost his job weeks after lifting the Europa League and Nuno Santo was given the boot just 10 league games into the 2021/22 season.

Mikel Arteta (Arsenal): 66/1

It’s been five years since Arteta delivered Arsenal’s last major trophy - the FA Cup - but he’s since turned the Gunners into consistent title challengers. After pushing Man City close in 2023 and 2024, they fell well short of Liverpool last season, finishing runners-up for a third straight year.

Arteta’s job is safe for now, but the pressure could build early doors with Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, and Newcastle to play before October.

Premier League Sack Race History

The table displays the first manager to leave in each of the last 10 Premier League seasons.

*Julen Lopetegui departed Wolves three days before the 2023/24 season.