Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds Betting Tips: Johnson well overpriced in the fouls market

Nottingham Forest welcome Leeds to the City Ground on Sunday afternoon in a tasty 2:30pm kick-off live on Sky Sports on Sunday afternoon. We’ve got our punting aficionado Anthony Eadson on hand with his best bets.

Steve Cooper’s side have improved their form significantly since the start of the season but will be well aware that just nine points separate eight sides in the bottom half of the table. Forest’s form at home though has been exceptional in recent months with the Tricky Trees unbeaten in front of their own fans since September in the Premier League.     

Leeds on the other hand have not taken three points from a game in the top-flight since before the World Cup. Jesse Marsch’s men are 15th in the standings but are just a point above the drop zone. Leeds have only won once on the road this season, with that victory coming at Anfield of all venues. 

In terms of the match result odds here, the bookmakers are struggling to separate the pair with Forest edging favouritism at 13/8, and Leeds being marginally bigger in the market at 17/10. The draw is available at 23/10 with most firms including bet365. Both of our bets on Sunday involve selections from the increasingly popular ‘player fouls market’ which you can read more about here in our betting guide.

Both of our bets on Sunday are with BetUK who we have been really impressed with lately for their generous priced selections from the player fouls market. One of the fastest growing bookmakers, BetUK also have a lovely sign up offer that you can claim by clicking the banner above, where you will receive £30 in free bets after signing up and placing a £10 bet. 

Our main pick for this contest is for Nottingham Forest’s Brennan Johnson to commit one or more fouls in the match. The Welshman has made a foul or more in 15 of his 18 league starts for Forest this season, giving much appeal to the 17/20 on show with BetUK. 

Other firms such as Paddy Power and Betfair have this same selection priced much shorter at 4/9, while Sky Bet take an even more conservative approach at 2/5. 

We’ve also picked out a three-pronged approach for our longshot in this game starting with Tyler Adams to clear the Over 1.5 fouls line. Across these two sides no player averages more fouls per game than Adams with 1.8 per game. We are expecting a lively atmosphere here in this game between two giants of the English game with a high-foul projected. Adams has committed 2+ fouls in nine of his 17 league outings this term. 

Next up it’s Gustavo Scarpa who is a master of skateboarding and solving a rubik’s cube who we are targeting. This time it’s for the Brazilian to make just 1+ fouls in contrast to 2+ with Adams. Against Manchester United on Wednesday, Scarpa committed three fouls and he looks a generous price here with BetUK for just one on Sunday. 

Rounding off the trio of players in this 13/2 Bet Builder is Joe Worrall. The Forest central defender has committed six fouls in his last five matches and has cleared the Over 0.5 line in four of those five. Combining him with Adams to have over 1.5 and Scarpa to have Over 0.5 pays 13/2.