Mark Kennedy’s Lincoln City: The progress and the potential
If Lincoln City’s trajectory over the next seven years is to remain upward, it’s unlikely to be quite as meteoric a rise as the last seven.
The Imps went from finishing 13th in the National League in 2015/16 to reaching the League One Play-Off Final in 2020/21, albeit before an underwhelming campaign the following season and one of steady growth in this one.
And steady growth is the key.
Lincoln City haven’t hit their ceiling, by any means, but they have hit a flight of stairs more awkward than those previous: wet-paint-covered steps, and more chance of banging the head.
As such, the club recognize that managerial stability becomes especially important in this phase – despite the full backing of previous managers – with Mark Kennedy handed a five-year contract when appointed in the summer.
The plan is to establish themselves in League One’s middle-eight bracket, whilst continuing to develop saleable assets, with a view to troubling the higher echelons of the division after a period of progress.
Kennedy looks on track with phase one: here’s how he’s done it, the quirks of Lincoln’s season so far, and what lies ahead for both club and coach.
City Solidified
Lincoln have conceded just 35 league goals this season – exactly one per game – with only Wycombe and five of the top-six shipping fewer.
They rank comparatively low at 14th in Open Play Expected Goals Against (7th in Set Play xGA) and the discrepancy may be explained in part by a combination of factors.
Firstly, the Imps have brave, last-ditch defenders in Paudie O’Connor, Adam Jackson, and Joe Walsh who will throw themselves in the way of shots.
Secondly, they have an excellent goalkeeper in Carl Rushworth, who has produced some outstanding performances since joining on loan from Brighton in the summer.
However, much of their defensive record also comes down to their work without the ball: the way House leads the press, the way Olamide Shodipo and Jack Diamond cover wing-backs Regan Poole and Sean Roughan when needed, with midfielders like Ethan Erhahon and Teddy Bishop being disciplined in the middle of the park.
Pragmatism with 3-4-3
3-4-3 might not be Kennedy’s number one, preferred formation, but the volume of quality centre-backs combined with the lack of depth in central attacking areas has seen the Irishman settle on it in 24 of Lincoln’s 35 league games, over 4-2-3-1.
In the first half of the season, this setup often comprised of three no-nonsense centre-backs, two progressive wing-backs, two sitting midfielders who are asked to keep a lid on things, and a more expressive front-three.
That template was great for avoiding defeat consistently, as well as pulling off the odd smash-and-grab coupon-buster like at Ipswich, but wasn’t ideal when City needed to embrace the favourites tag.
With limited ball-playing nous in defence, width from the wing-backs and creativity in midfield, it was difficult to carve open the deep blocks, thus a lot of games became stalemates.
As such, Kennedy has since made tweaks in search of balance.
The likes of Regan Poole and Lewis Montsma have come into the defence to offer more assurance, while Ethan Erhahon was signed in January to add quality in midfield – and boy, has he done just that.
Shine bright like a Diamond
Jack Diamond has shone for the Imps this season, bringing so many different dimensions to their attacking play.
The Sunderland loanee can be quick and direct, but he can also wriggle out of challenges and elude tight areas, as well as producing moments of genuine quality.
The other side of his game, though, is his aggression against the ball, and willingness to track back to support his corresponding left wing-back.
Diamond has come on significantly under Kennedy’s guidance, and the only trouble for him has been the volume of games, due to the shortage of competition.
As such, the Irish boss hasn’t had the option to rest the star man, without experiencing a drop-off in quality, but overall it’s been a great season.
With Sunderland lavished with plenty of wide, attacking options, a return to Sincil Bank next season for Diamond is not completely beyond the realms of possibility.
The 23-year-old is out of contract at the Stadium of Light in 2024, and if the Black Cats don’t intend to renew, they might prefer to cash in this summer.
There may be Championship offers for Diamond, depending on how he finishes this campaign: ironically, it might suit City for the 5’9” wide forward to do so quietly, increasing their chances of being front of the queue next summer.
Our House
Jake Tonge from the Stacey West Podcast once asserted on #EFLDebate that House is the most technically gifted striker in League One.
We say striker because, quite simply, House cannot be compared with David McGoldrick just yet, as Derby’s withdrawn forward has proved a class above this level.
And yet, House isn’t a traditional number nine: if anything, it could be argued that he operates as something of a false nine.
The 6’1” forward leads the press from the front, but when his team has the ball, his focus is often more on dropping between the lines and linking play than it is on bursting into goalscoring positions.
The former Reading trainee’s selflessness means Diamond and Danny Mandriou or Olamide Shodipo can attack goalscoring areas.
There are 47 attacking wide men in League One who have played more than five league games this season, and the above three are all in the top 18 for most shots in the penalty area per 90 minutes – 1.2, 1.5 and 1.3 respectively.
In fact, House hasn’t had more penalty box shots than any of them, despite the fact he’s the striker on paper.
And yet, the 23-year-old is considered essential to the way City play.
Firstly, House is instrumental in the press, not only in terms of his aggression and work ethic, but also his intelligence.
The former Eastleigh front-man always knows the right places to be, the correct angles to cut off and how to press, as well as instructing the opponents.
House sets a great example for his teammates, and tells them where to go, while his selflessness when Lincoln have the ball creates space for other players.
House’s creative data this season hasn’t looked great, but that’s because he hasn’t been fed much of the ball due to issues the Imps have had progressing it from other areas of the pitch: when he has been fed, he’s been a real thorn in opposing sides.
At times, the forward might not get credited with a direct goal involvement on paper, but his movement has been so good that he’s dragged two opponents away from the direction of play, allowing others to capitalize on the space.
That speaks to excellent work from Kennedy, who along with the coaching staff have elevated House’s game to new levels – last January’s recruit has come on leaps and bounds as a finisher, with nine goals for the season.
Erhahon’s impact
Kennedy’s 3-4-3 system doesn’t give midfielders bucket loads of creative freedom, because they’re already tasked with covering so much defensive ground.
For instance, Antonio Conte’s Chelsea won the Premier League title in 2016/17 with N’Golo Kante and Nemanja Matic doing the destructive work, likewise James McCarthy and McArthur for Roberto Martinez’s Wigan, or Anders Herrera and Iturraspe for Marcelo Bielsa’s Athletic Bilbao.
It can be difficult, at League One level, to find midfielders who can cover the ground and do the defensive aspects required in a two-man setup, but who can also progress effectively at certain moments.
Lincoln, though, might just have found one in Ethan Erhahon, which is all credit to their recruitment setup led by Chief Scout Marc Tracy.
Erhahon could have gone elsewhere but it was a late swoop from the Imps, who made an excellent addition to their midfield.
The 21-year-old gets through his share of defensive work, but he also has a certain poise in possession that none of Lincoln’s midfielders have quite brought to the table.
There have been situations in which the St Mirren recruit receives the ball and the obvious forward pass is staring him in the face, but he has the presence of mind to withhold the ball a split second longer.
In this time, the opponents reshuffle in anticipation of the aforementioned obvious ball, meaning even more space opens up in a different angle for Erhahon to pick.
If Lincoln can retain the Glaswegian, it’ll significantly boost their chances of cracking the top ten in League One, if they can’t, they could easily get triple what they spent on him, plus more potentially in bonuses and add-on clauses. Win-win.
Statistical quirks
The Imps hold the curious distinction of being unbeaten in the league at home, with just six to play at Sincil Bank, yet they have recorded the joint-second fewest home wins (four).
In fact, Kennedy’s side have actually won one more away league game this season! Confused?
Home stalemates with Exeter, Forest Green, Fleetwood, Accrington Stanley, Cambridge and MK Dons show the Imps’ struggles to unlock sides at the Bank, but ties with Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth Argyle, Wycombe, Bolton, Ipswich and Portsmouth proved they’re a tough nut to crack.
Likewise, City have accrued 14 points from nine games against top-six opposition – 1.56 PPG - falling to defeat just once, at Bolton back in October.
And yet, it’s 19 from 13 against bottom nine opposition – 1.46 PPG – with only Oxford (twice) and Morecambe dispatched.
It’s ironic, perhaps, given that the wider conversation around League One over the last couple of seasons is that it’s a split-league with the top-10 a class above the rest, and the best an overperforming underdog can hope for is midtable.
As such, perhaps Lincoln would prefer their current story over that of a team that’s too good for the strugglers but falls apart against the top dogs.
Mark Kennedy already has a blueprint for stopping the best teams, and while there’s no guarantee his side can repeat the tricks next season, they won’t be overawed by those occasions.
Plus, finding a plan to dislodge next year’s relegation fodder is a favourable assignment.
The summer ahead
It’s difficult to know exactly what Lincoln’s summer will look like without knowing who’s out of contract, let alone who will be released, the possibility of certain loan players returning and retaining key players – or the fee they’ll go for.
However, it’s clear that even a stable summer with few departures would still leave the Imps needing a goalkeeper to replace the outstanding Brighton loanee Carl Rushworth, who will almost certainly move on to the Championship – if he doesn’t get into their squad next season, with possible European demands.
City already have a relationship with Arsenal through the development of Brooke Norton-Cuffy, and could use their contacts to strike a deal for Arthur Okonkwo, who starred on loan at Crewe in the first half of the season before being sent to Sturm Graz.
The 21-year-old is an outstanding shot-stopper and his proactive distribution is ideal for counter-attacks, if the Imps can get pace at the other end.
They will also require either a ruthless, goalscoring centre-forward who can still fit into Kennedy’s aggressive style, or a quality #10 who can push double-digits for goals and assists.
Lincoln are unlikely to afford both, and which option they prioritize may depend on where they see House fitting in, should the boss switch from this year’s 3-4-3 to a 4-2-3-1, as some anticipate.
If City look to get top-end quality in the loan market for a #10, they may entertain a budget-friendly option like Omar Bugiel, out of contract at Sutton.
The Lebanese front-man has an impeccable work ethic, can be a strong shoulder or chest reference point from deep – especially if the goalkeeper is good at kicking – and can create in pockets for quicker onrunners.
Bugiel doesn’t have the same potential as House, but if the latter stays, he’d be an appealing option to bring in occasionally to rest the star man, start 5-10 league games and a few cup matches, or bring off the bench as required, without the overall system having to change.
Getting Jack Diamond back from Sunderland would be the dream – they’ll need to retain, or more likely, replace, the star loanee, along with QPR’s Olamide Shodipo, who might just suit playing as part of a four-man attacking setup better than three.
On top of that, competition may be required in the full-back and wing-back areas, if Regan Poole goes: Josh Cogley is out of contract at Tranmere and would be a powerful option, who would be strong defensively, whilst being capable of breaking into the final third at speed.
Plus, rule out an improved second season from Harry Boyes, if he returns from Sheffield United, after a year to acclimatize to League One: the 21-year-old showed at Solihull Moors he’s got a great engine, can link up well and put a cross on a sixpence.
Mark Kennedy: The potential
The fact Kennedy had been Head Coach of Manchester City Under-23s suggested he would be in the tiki-taka school of management, but the Irishman has favoured a more aggressive style, which has allowed his side to consistently churn out points and solidify in midtable.
The real test is how he evolves this team, but if there is to be a modest-budgeted club that ruffles the regulars next season, Lincoln look one of the likelier suspects: smart club, solid foundations, coveted assets and a healthy pool of young talent, especially arriving from Ireland.
As for Kennedy himself, he will see his immediate future at Sincil Bank, but if he can oversee steady growth with Lincoln, he will put himself in the shop window for Championship jobs.
With Rotherham appointing Matt Taylor, QPR, Gareth Ainsworth, Hull, Liam Rosenior, PNE, Ryan Lowe and even Watford/Luton, Rob Edwards, there is an appetite coming back to second-tier clubs to look into the lower divisions.
Kennedy has built sturdy foundations at Sincil Bank – execute next season’s evolution correctly and sustainable progress awaits.
