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4-2
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3-4
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2-0
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League One Odds: Final day managerial madness in chase for title, automatic promotion, play-offs and survival

Can Leam Richardson lead Wigan to the League One title?
Can Leam Richardson lead Wigan to the League One title?

The 2021/22 League One season reaches a compelling and slightly complex climax on Saturday.

There's an exciting three-team clash for the title and automatic promotion spots, the play-off places still need to be decided, and don't forget about the heart-pounding, nerve-shredding, frantic fight for survival!

Below, we take a look at the odds in each of these categories and attempt to get our heads around all of the possible scenarios, with so much at stake for a multitude of managers...

All matches will be played at 12.30pm on Saturday 30th April.

League One Odds
Title Race & Automatic Promotion
League Pos Team P W D L GF GA GD PTS
1. Wigan 46 27 11 8 82 44 +38 92
2. Rotherham 46 27 9 10 70 33 +37 90
3. MK Dons 46 26 11 9 78 44 +34 89
4. Sheff Wed 46 24 13 9 78 50 +28 85
5. Sunderland 46 24 12 10 79 53 +26 84
6. Wycombe 46 23 14 9 75 51 +24 83
7. Plymouth 46 23 11 12 68 48 +20 80
8. Oxford 46 22 10 14 82 59 +23 76
9. Bolton 46 21 10 15 74 57 +17 73
10. Portsmouth 46 20 13 13 68 51 +17 73
11. Ipswich 46 18 16 12 67 46 +21 70
12. Accrington 46 17 10 19 61 80 -19 61
13. Charlton 46 17 8 21 55 59 -4 59
14. Cambridge U 46 15 13 18 56 74 -18 58
15. Cheltenham 46 13 17 16 66 80 -14 56
16. Burton 46 14 11 21 51 67 -16 53
17. Lincoln 46 14 10 22 55 63 -8 52
18. Shrewsbury 46 12 14 20 47 51 -4 50
19. Morecambe 46 10 12 24 57 88 -31 42
20. Fleetwood 46 8 16 22 62 82 -20 40
21. Gillingham 46 8 16 22 35 69 -34 40
22. Doncaster 46 10 8 28 37 82 -45 38
23. Wimbledon 46 6 19 21 49 75 -26 37
24. Crewe 46 7 8 31 37 83 -46 29
Show More

What a job Leam Richardson has done since taking charge of Wigan in November 2020. Despite having his hands tied he kept the Latics in League One last season, now he’s on the cusp of lifting the title and booking a spot in the Championship.

The recently crowned League One Manager of the Season (EFL Awards) goes into the final game away to Shrewsbury knowing that a win will secure both of the above. A draw will also be enough to claim the title if Rotherham fail to win, while a point will definitely seal automatic promotion.

Wigan are 1/5000 for automatic promotion and 1/3 for the title, but are worryingly without a win in five games and remarkably lost 3-2 to Portsmouth in their last game having been 2-0 up.

Alarmingly for the Latics, there is a scenario that could see them drop into the play-offs: if they lose, Rotherham win, and MK Dons win and make up a six-goal swing.

Rotherham, looking for a third League One promotion under Paul Warne, can win the title (12/5, bet365) if they win at relegation-threatened Gillingham and Wigan lose or draw. However, Warne's side could drop into the play-offs if they lose/draw and MK Dons win.

Liam Manning has been exceptional this season, taking over an MK Dons side wounded by the untimely departure of Russell Martin just before the season got underway, he now has promotion in his sights although his side face a tough task away to 6th-placed Plymouth. Seeking a place in the Championship for the first time since 2015/16, MK Dons are as long as 300/1 to win the title (bet365) albeit a tempting 5/1 for automatic promotion.

To scoop the title, they need to win and hope Wigan lose and Rotherham fail to win, with the added obstacle of a six-goal swing.

Are your heads spinning yet?

  • Shrewsbury (17th) vs Wigan (1st)
  • Gillingham (21st) vs Rotherham (2nd)
  • Plymouth (6th) vs MK Dons (3rd)

Title and Top-2 Odds

Wigan
WIN PROB: 75%
1
REVEAL OFFER
1/3
£20 FREE BET
Rotherham United
WIN PROB: 31%
1
£20 FREE BET
9/4
REVEAL OFFER
9/4
Milton Keynes Dons
WIN PROB: 0%
1
REVEAL OFFER
£20 FREE BET
Odds correct as of 2022-04-27 11:27 Odds subject to change.
League One Top-6 Finish and Promotion
League Pos Team P W D L GF GA GD PTS
1. Wigan 46 27 11 8 82 44 +38 92
2. Rotherham 46 27 9 10 70 33 +37 90
3. MK Dons 46 26 11 9 78 44 +34 89
4. Sheff Wed 46 24 13 9 78 50 +28 85
5. Sunderland 46 24 12 10 79 53 +26 84
6. Wycombe 46 23 14 9 75 51 +24 83
7. Plymouth 46 23 11 12 68 48 +20 80
8. Oxford 46 22 10 14 82 59 +23 76
9. Bolton 46 21 10 15 74 57 +17 73
10. Portsmouth 46 20 13 13 68 51 +17 73
11. Ipswich 46 18 16 12 67 46 +21 70
12. Accrington 46 17 10 19 61 80 -19 61
13. Charlton 46 17 8 21 55 59 -4 59
14. Cambridge U 46 15 13 18 56 74 -18 58
15. Cheltenham 46 13 17 16 66 80 -14 56
16. Burton 46 14 11 21 51 67 -16 53
17. Lincoln 46 14 10 22 55 63 -8 52
18. Shrewsbury 46 12 14 20 47 51 -4 50
19. Morecambe 46 10 12 24 57 88 -31 42
20. Fleetwood 46 8 16 22 62 82 -20 40
21. Gillingham 46 8 16 22 35 69 -34 40
22. Doncaster 46 10 8 28 37 82 -45 38
23. Wimbledon 46 6 19 21 49 75 -26 37
24. Crewe 46 7 8 31 37 83 -46 29
Show More

Wigan, Rotherham, and MK Dons are all assured of a top-6 finish, but as explained above one of the three will be forced to battle it out in the play-offs.

Behind this trio, there's an engrossing battle for the remaining three spots in the top-6. As you can tell from the table above there are four teams in the mix (in bold) and their fixtures are as follows...

  • Sheff Wed (4th) vs Portsmouth (9th)
  • Morecambe (19th) vs Sunderland (5th)
  • Plymouth (6th) vs MK Dons (3rd)
  • Burton (16th) vs Wycombe (7th)

There are a plethora of permutations at play here - it could even come down to head-to-head records - but to simplify things: Darren Moore's Sheff Wed (4th) and Alex Neil's Sunderland (5th) each know that a win will cement their respective places in the play-offs.

If any of the three teams nestled in the play-offs slip up then Gareth Ainsworth's 7th-placed Wycombe are ready to pounce. Unfortunately for the Chairboys they could win and still finish outside of the play-offs; if that happens then their tally of 83 points would be the highest to miss out on the play-offs in the history of third-tier English football!

If Plymouth, in 6th on goal difference and managed by Steven Schumacher, draw and Wycombe fail to win then they'll be ok. Although, if all four teams in contention win then Wycombe can only jump above Plymouth if they make up a two-goal swing. If both Plymouth and Wycombe lose, then Wycombe could still actually get 6th if Plymouth lose heavily.

The bookies currently have Sheffield Wednesday as the 1/28 favourites to finish in the top-6, Sunderland are 1/10, Plymouth 4/7, and Wycombe 4/6.

Promotion and Top-6 Finish Odds

Sunderland
WIN PROB: 29%
1
£20 FREE BET
5/2
REVEAL OFFER
£40 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
1/2
Wycombe Wanderers
WIN PROB: 13%
1
£20 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
6/4
£30 FREE BET
£40 FREE BET
6/5
Odds correct as of 2022-05-10 08:59 Odds subject to change.
The fight for survival
League Pos Team P W D L GF GA GD PTS
1. Wigan 46 27 11 8 82 44 +38 92
2. Rotherham 46 27 9 10 70 33 +37 90
3. MK Dons 46 26 11 9 78 44 +34 89
4. Sheff Wed 46 24 13 9 78 50 +28 85
5. Sunderland 46 24 12 10 79 53 +26 84
6. Wycombe 46 23 14 9 75 51 +24 83
7. Plymouth 46 23 11 12 68 48 +20 80
8. Oxford 46 22 10 14 82 59 +23 76
9. Bolton 46 21 10 15 74 57 +17 73
10. Portsmouth 46 20 13 13 68 51 +17 73
11. Ipswich 46 18 16 12 67 46 +21 70
12. Accrington 46 17 10 19 61 80 -19 61
13. Charlton 46 17 8 21 55 59 -4 59
14. Cambridge U 46 15 13 18 56 74 -18 58
15. Cheltenham 46 13 17 16 66 80 -14 56
16. Burton 46 14 11 21 51 67 -16 53
17. Lincoln 46 14 10 22 55 63 -8 52
18. Shrewsbury 46 12 14 20 47 51 -4 50
19. Morecambe 46 10 12 24 57 88 -31 42
20. Fleetwood 46 8 16 22 62 82 -20 40
21. Gillingham 46 8 16 22 35 69 -34 40
22. Doncaster 46 10 8 28 37 82 -45 38
23. Wimbledon 46 6 19 21 49 75 -26 37
24. Crewe 46 7 8 31 37 83 -46 29
Show More

Now, for the fight for survival.

We already know that Crewe are down, with the club since parting ways with long-serving boss David Artell. Caretaker Alex Morris is currently the hot-favourite to replace him in the next Crewe manager odds.

So, that leaves three remaining spots in the relegation zone, with five teams all bidding to avoid the dreaded drop. First, let's take a look at the fixtures...

  • AFC Wimbledon (22nd) vs Accrington (13th)
  • Bolton (10th) vs Fleetwood (20th)
  • Gillingham (21st) vs Rotherham (2nd)
  • Morecambe (19th) vs Sunderland (5th)
  • Oxford (8th) vs Doncaster (23rd)

While still mathematically possible, the inferior goal difference of Gary McSheffrey's Doncaster means they are doomed, surely.

The chances of Mark Bowen's AFC Wimbledon surviving are slightly brighter but they still need to win, make up a seven-goal swing, and hope both Gillingham and Fleetwood lose. It is, however, worth noting that they haven't won in 26 games.

We're well aware that miracles do happen, but realistically speaking it's likely to come down to Morecambe, Fleetwood, and Gillingham.

Morecambe, who two months ago suddenly lost manager Stephen Robinson to St Mirren, are once again led by the manager who got them into League One: Derek Adams. Two points above the bottom-four in 19th, they are the 20/1 outsiders to go down. They do, however, face a tough fixture at home to Sunderland who themselves - as discussed - are looking to cement their place in the play-offs.

A Morecambe win will guarantee survival, while they will also stay up if either Fleetwood (Stephen Crainey) or Gillingham (Neil Harris) fail to win. If Morecambe draw and both Fleetwood and Gillingham win then it will all come down to goal difference.

If Morecambe do enough to survive, then Fleetwood will need to match Gillingham's result.

In other words, a number of things can happen so there's everything to play for!

Relegation Odds

  • PROB
    %
Gillingham
WIN PROB: 80%
Fleetwood Town
WIN PROB: 27%
Morecambe
WIN PROB: 7%
Odds correct as of 2022-04-27 09:09 Odds subject to change.
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