League 1 Relegation Odds 22/23: Two clubs to consider for the drop
The beginning of the season is a time like no other. Between the air of optimism that indoctrinates even the most pessimistic of fanbases to the wildly contrasting predictions from supporters, pundits and neutrals alike, the possibilities truly are endless.
With not long to go until that first ball is kicked, it's an opportunity for us to zero in on League One for the final time during this ante-post period and assess the season's relegation market.
Here we'll examine the bookmaker favourites to fall into England's bottom tier, noting which teams have suffered the drop over the previous 10 seasons, before finally weighing in with which clubs we believe are prime candidates at a healthy price to be relegated.
League One Odds
22/23 Favourites
Morecambe - 11/10
Despite being present in the division last term, it's Morecambe who find themselves as the favourites for relegation this time around. Being odds-on or EVS with multiple firms tells us that they represent around a 50% chance of facing the drop.
Fancied over the three newbies entering L1, it's expected that the Shrimps are going to struggle once again having finished 19th last season; just two points clear of 21st-placed Gillingham.
Derek Adams' side won't go down without a fight, packing out the 2,247-seated Mazuma Stadium for every home game, but they may just lack the requisite quality to extend their League One stay beyond a third season.
If you believe they are destined to go down by the end of the upcoming campaign, both William Hill and 888Sport have them priced up at 11/10.
Cheltenham - 15/8
After four years with Michael Duff at the helm, this season marks a transition into something uncertain. That's why Cheltenham Town find themselves as the second shortest price for the drop behind only Morecambe.
The task at hand for promoted first team coach Wade Elliott is an unenviable one, after Duff steered the club to their highest ever finish of 15th in League One last term.
It's plain to see why The Robins can be found at 6/4 with multiple firms. They're jumping into the unknown on the back of their most successful season ever - in a ruthless league that really has the ability to separate the men from the boys.
When appointed back in 2018, his predecessor failed to win any of his opening eight matches in the first managerial position of his career, but had the backing of the board to display the right qualities to turn things around. If Cheltenham have hired Elliott, they must see something similar in him, and therefore similar patience is most likely needed.
Exeter - 2/1
Next up in the betting are Exeter - last season's League Two runners-up who finished level on points with champions Forest Green Rovers, but missed out on the title due to an inferior goal difference.
Their 'by the fans, for the fans' ownership model paid dividends back in April when Matt Taylor and his men secured promotion almost 10 years to the day they were banished to League Two.
League One sustainability is well within the realms of possibility, but that won't come without a rocky debut campaign first, represented by the fact that you can find them as short as 7/4 with some bookmakers.
The Grecians' summer business has largely emphasised retaining their key assets, but a couple of smart additions in the form of Jamal Blackman and Kegs Chauke will certainly have them believing in survival.
Fleetwood - 2/1
Like Exeter, Fleetwood Town are a 2/1 shot to be relegated to League Two when the 22/23 campaign wraps next May.
The Cod Army will be led by fiery former Scottish midfielder Scott Brown, whose reputation is likely to precede him over on the Lancashire coast.
Brown entered management during the offseason following a campaign as assistant over at Aberdeen. The Bhoys icon appears to tick a lot of the managerial boxes on paper, including the ability to connect with fans of all ages due to his fresh but ample career, while still having the level of seniority to earn him respect in the dressing room.
After limping over the line with a measly 40 points - just one win more than bottom placed Crewe Alexandra managed - it was going to be a baptism of fire for anyone taking on the job, no less someone with no prior experience as top brass in the dugout.
Previously Relegated Teams
- 2012/13: Scunthorpe, Bury, Hartlepool & Portsmouth
- 2013/14: Tranmere, Carlisle, Shrewsbury & Stevenage
- 2014/15: Notts County, Crawley, Leyton Orient & Yeovil
- 2015/16: Doncaster, Blackpool, Colchester & Crewe
- 2016/17: Port Vale, Swindon, Coventry & Chesterfield
- 2017/18: Oldham, Northampton, Milton Keynes Dons & Bury
- 2018/19: Plymouth, Walsall, Scunthorpe & Bradford
- 2019/20: Tranmere, Southend, Bolton & Bury
- 2020/21: Rochdale, Northampton, Swindon & Bristol Rovers
- 2021/22: Gillingham, Doncaster, AFC Wimbledon & Crewe
Since the Football League Division Two became the Football League One as we know it today back in the 04/05 season, five teams have suffered back-to-back relegations from the Championship all the way down to L2.
The five clubs with this stain next to their name are Luton Town (06/07-07/08), Plymouth Argyle (09/10-10/11), Yeovil Town (13/14-14/15), Blackpool (14/15-15/16) and Bolton Wanderers (18/19-19/20).
Judging solely from these past 10 seasons, it's occurred three times, with Bolton being the most recent example.
Financial ruin is typically the overriding factor in such a free fall, so could this make Derby County the most likely candidates to suffer the same fate?
Who to Back?
With four places leaving a wider net to cast, this is a real opportunity to find some value in the relegation betting. Rather than hover around the teams we've already covered, we're going further up the market to pick out a couple of names we believe could be dragged into this dogfight.
The first side who catches the eye when scanning the odds are Forest Green Rovers. The vegans' meteoric rise culminated in last season's League Two title win which will now see them compete in England's third tier for the first time in their history.
In my opinion, staying in the division without Rob Edwards at the helm will be too big of an ask for them. Factor in departures to two key players in Kane Wilson and Ebou Adams and their chances of staying up become even slimmer.
With seven clubs at a shorter price to go down, the 11/4 being offered by Bet365 makes it worth taking a punt on the league's fresh blood to fall straight back down.
As for an outsider punt, Burton Albion could meet that criteria. The Brewers may have finished 13 points above the drop zone last term, but there were enough worrying signs that could see them involved in a relegation scrap this time around.
Firstly, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's side struggled for goals. They tallied just 51 across 46 games during the 21/22 campaign - a number which only five teams failed to outperform; four of which were relegated from the division.
There are also question marks floating over whether JFH and this Burton side have reached their ceiling. The 50-year-old started his second spell in the Burton hot seat on New Year's Day last year, lifting them from the foot of the table to a respectable 12th placed finish.
But he and his team didn't push on from this position during their first full campaign together. Not much has been done to freshen things up during this time and Burton are becoming quite stale and predictable because of it.
If you too are suspecting that Burton could face a return to League Two, they are best priced at 7/2 with 10Bet to be relegated.
