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Italy v Spain Prediction: All eyes on the Azzuri for Wembley semi clash

Italy v Spain Prediction: Marco Verratti features.
Italy v Spain Prediction: Marco Verratti features.

And then there were four. The first Euro 2020 semi-final of the summer sees Italy lock horns with Spain at Wembley.

The Italians saw their unbeaten run stretch to 32 games after they bested the world's top ranked side, Belgium. Roberto Mancini will be without one of his standout performers, Leonardo Spinazzola, after he suffered a nasty Achilles injury in Italy's last game. Emerson is the likely replacement at left-back. Italy’s supremo will also have a decision to make in attack. Ciro Immobile was off the boil against the Red Devils which could mean he is replaced by Andrea Belotti. Whoever starts in the middle will be flanked by Federico Chiesa and Lorenzo Insigne.

As for the Spaniard’s, Luis Enrique will be waiting on the result of Pablo Sarabia MRI scan, however, he is a major doubt. Pau Torres should get the nod over Eric Garcia alongside Aymeric Laporte.

Italy v Spain Prediction

Today's football tips
Italy to win
29/20
Odds correct as of 2021-07-06 08:45 Odds subject to change.

The Italians are priced at around 13/10 with most bookmakers which puts their expected chance of victory at 43%, however, they have actually won 86% of their matches when priced accordingly. On the other hand, Spain are priced at around 11/5 meaning the probability of a Spanish victory is 31% but they have only won 1% of their games at these odds. Therefore, price wise, the value is certainly with Gli Azzurri.

Tactically, the pits one of the best defences in international football against one of the most wasteful offensive lines of the summer. Mancini’s side are currently amidst an unbeaten run that stretches back 32 games. During which time they have won 27 and drawn five, scoring 85 goals in the process, conceding just nine and keeping a clean in 72% of these fixtures.

The Spaniards were extremely wasteful in their first two games of the tournament as they frequently dominated the proceedings but failed to make the most of their chances. This is best illustrated by the fact they only scored once from 28 shots.

Italy v Spain odds
Draw/Italy
19/4
Odds correct as of 2021-07-06 08:50 Odds subject to change.

If the Italians do manage to get their noses ahead it will be tough for Spain to get back into the game as they are masters of the dark arts. Against Belgium, according to Stuart James of the Athletic, Italy displayed “shithousery of the highest order.” Perhaps, this is best epitomised by the fact that when Spinazzola went down- in the 76th minute- the ball was only in play for nine of the remaining minutes.

Since that injury, there were 22 hold ups for things like free kicks, substitutions- Italy made five separate ones in the last 14 minutes- injuries, goal kicks and throw-ins. Six of Italy’s 13 fouls in the match were committed from the 80th minute onwards. Although their antics were perhaps best epitomised by Immobile. All of this just illustrates how they never allowed Belgium to build any momentum.

It is also worth noting that it took Spain 120 minutes and a penalty shoot out to get past Switzerland in the quarter-finals despite the fact that they played 40 minutes with an extra man following Remo Freuler’s red card.

Since 2000, 67% of the semi-finals in the Euro’s have finished all square at half time, therefore, I think at the prices available this is a nice way in.

Marco Verratti man of the match
14/1
Odds correct as of 2021-07-06 08:50 Odds subject to change.

The final angle I like for this fixture is Marco Verratti to win Man of the Match at odds of 14/1 with Bet365. Might be something of interest to use the free £10 Bet365 have given the majority of us.

PSG’s little midfielder is arguably Italy’s most talented player and Mancini is a big fan. This summer, he has generated a WhoScored’s rating of 7.97, won MOTM once, 94.4% pass success and registered two assists. So if the Italians are going to prevail here you’d expect their little maestro to shine.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.

England v Denmark odds
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