Odds shown as:

European Football Tips: Shots on the cards across the biggest games of the weekend

European Football Tips: Find Jimmy's three tips listed below.
European Football Tips: Find Jimmy's three tips listed below.

Jimmy the Punt brings you his three football tips from the standout games across Europe this weekend.

Once again I've trawled through the shots on target and cards market on the hunt for valuable prices from the tastiest fixtures on the continent. My picks this week are priced at 13/10 and 10/3, with a longshot at 160.2/1.

My NAP comes courtesy of an emotionally charged Derby del Sole, as the mourning city of Naples welcomes La Lupa. Roma have been in scintillating form as of late and come into this one of the back of four domestic wins in a row and are through to the knockout stages in the Europa League following victory midweek. A win could take Napoli back intot he UCL spots- providing results elsewhere in Serie A go their way- but will have to face Roma on Sunday without; Victor Osimhen (injured), Amir Rrahmani (injured), Tiemoue Bakayoko (suspended) and Elseid Haysaj (COVID).

My next best and longshot selections come via Valencia's clash with Atletico Madrid in La Liga. Visitors Atletico will be looking to make it six league wins from six as they travel to Mestalla on Saturday. However, they may have to do it without their formidable strike partnership of Luis Suarez and Diego Costa. Priced around 7/10 their implied probability of victory is 59% yet at these odds they have won around 70% of their matches!

Today's football tips
Napoli v Roma
Sun, 19:45
Mertens 2 Shots on Target
  • Scored 2/2 as a striker.
  • Averages 4 SpG as a striker.
  • Had at least 2 SoT in both his appearances as a striker.
Odds correct as of 2020-11-28 11:55 Odds subject to change.

With Victor Osimhen sidelined with injury, Napoli's all time top goalscorer is set to lead the line for the third time this season. 

Despite the fact that Dries Mertens always operates in an advanced role, when playing as an out and out striker his shot statistics see a radical rise. In the two games he's already played as an ST this season, he's averaged four shots per game and hit the target five times. In his more frequent role as an attacking midfielder, he averages 2.8 SpG and averaged a shot on target a game. It is also worth noting two of his three league goals came as a striker.

@JimmyThePunt's European Football Tips
Sat, 15:15
Valencia v Atletico Madrid: Paulista to be carded
  • 3 cards in last 5 appearances.
  • Booked last time the sides met.
  • Direct opponant is Atletico Madrid's most fouled player; Joao Felix (2 times per start).
Odds correct as of 2020-11-27 16:50 Odds subject to change.

The Brazilian centre-half could be in for a long afternoon on the eastern coast of Spain as he lines up to face Los Colchoneros wonderkind Joao Felix.

With three cards already to his name in just seven appearances this season, Gabriel Paulista won't be looking forward to the prospect of facing Joao Felix who has been in fine fettle as of late. With Suarez and Costa both sidelined, Felix is reaping the rewards of a stint as Atleti's main man and will be brimming with confidence for this one as he has bagged four in his last three league appearances.

The fact that the man with the whistle for this one is Richardo de Burgos Bengoetxea is a big factor for this selection. He is the referee that tops the charts in La Liga for most cards per game averaging 6.25! This season he's awarding the following card totals; 8/4/5/6/8, that includes two penalties and a red. So as far as referee appointments go, I think we've got the best of the bunch for this one. It is also worth noting that Gabriel Paulister was booked in the penultimate Valencia game tomorrow's ref took charge off. He was also booked when the sides last met in La Liga.

Price wise, Gabriel Paulista is as short as 23/10 elsewhere.

Definite bookable offence below:

Sat, 15:15
Valencia v Atletico Madrid: Gabriel Paulista & Koke carded, Correa & Wass 1+ SoT each
  • Gabriel Paulista 3 cards in 7 league games.
  • Koke 3 cards in last 4 appearances.
  • Wass SpG of 1.8 as a central midfielder. 
  • Correa had a goal bound shot in 80% of his games as an ST.
Odds correct as of 2020-11-27 16:50 Odds subject to change.

The most carded players in La Liga have accumulated four yellows, Gabriel and Koke are amongst the chasing pack with three. The latter has picked up all of his domestic cards in his last four league appearances, he also tops Atletico Madrid's charts for cards and for fouls averaging 1.9 per game.

In terms of shots on target, the fact that Thierry Correia is pushing for a return at right back could see Daniel Wass feature as a centre midfielder.

As a midfielder, Wass' shots per game average increases drastically (1.8)  from what it is when he plays in defence (0.6). When operating further up the pitch, he's registered a shot on target in three out of five appearances and in both the games he didn't manage one, he had a goal bound shot blocked! Priced at 16/5 for an shot on target with Betfair they clearly have him down to start at right back so I would not put anyone off backing the single, line-up permitting!

I also fancy Correa in the shots on target market. If you'd like to have him as a single, William Hill have the best price at odds against. The Argentine will likely be starting alongside Joao Felix in attack with Diego Costa ruled out and Luis Suarez a doubt. As a striker, Correa has averaged 1.8 shots per game this season- shots per game on target of 0.4 as a right midfielder- and had a goal bound shot in four of his five appearances up-top!

Free betting offers
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As Cash If It Loses
#AD 18+ New Customer Offer. Place your FIRST bet at odds of min 2.0 (EVS) and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using debit cards will qualify for this promotion (Apple Pay deposits excluded). T&C's apply, BeGambleAware.Org
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD New UK customers (Excluding NI) mobile only. £30 in FREE Bets (FB) as £20 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7 day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&C's Apply. **18+. Prices subject to fluctuation and availability.  T&Cs apply
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+ New Customers Only - Place a £10 Sportsbook bet on at min. odds 1.5 (1/2) — get £30 in free bets. Only deposits via cards will qualify, Apple pay not valid on this promotion. T&Cs apply, BeGambleaware.org
Money Back As A Bonus Up To £40 If Your First Bet Loses + £10 casino
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org. New customers only. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus if first sports bet loses. Wagering requirements: sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Unless forfeited the sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Bonus expires 7 days after opt-in. Visit Unibet.co.uk for full T&C's.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code R30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10/€10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
Double the odds, any sport, any bet, any odds!
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org Only valid for new registrations to Grosvenor Existing members do not qualify, Bet must be placed using real money in combination with the Odds Boost Token, Offer applies to Sport bets only. Max stake is £10. Each way bets are a maximum of £5 each way (£10 total). Customers have 60 days after registration to use the Odds Boost token. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets
#AD 18+, New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 on any sports (odds 2.00+) in 7 days. No cash out. Get 4x£5 sports free bets for set markets (odds 2.00+), which expire in 7 days. Offer is valid from 10:00 UK time on 16/01/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply. begambleaware.org | Please Gamble Responsibly
£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 50 Bonus Spins
#AD 18+ New UK customers only. Min Deposit: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. This is offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying Acca bet.50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements, bonus Spins only available on selected games and expires 7 days after being awarded. Debit card deposits only (exclusions apply). 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full terms apply
Bet £25 get £50 In Bonuses
#AD Place a qualifying £25 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater and get £50 in bonuses 5 x £5 free fixed odds bets, 4 x free £5 spread bets + 50 free spins on Starburst. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. T&Cs Apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
New 18+ UK customers only. Register using the promo code WELCOME40, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets and £10 in Free Spins (50x20p) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets
#AD New customers only - Significant terms: opt-in and deposit within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 free bets. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.3) or greater, stake not returned. T&Cs apply, BeGambleAware.org
Bet £10 Get £10 In Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5 and get a £10 free bet. Full T&Cs apply.18+. BeGambleAware.org.
100% Profit Boost up to £100 (Mobile Only)
#AD New UK customers only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excluded. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100.T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 get £15
#AD New customers only. 18+ begambleaware.org 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.T&C's apply.
Bet £10 get £10
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org, Welcome Bonus: This offer is for new customers only and is available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £20
#AD New customers only, welcome bonus: 1st deposit, min deposit: £10, max £20 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. system bets are not eligible. Neteller, Skrill, and PayPal are not eligible. , 18+ begambleaware.org
50% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org; New bettors get 50% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; See full terms.
£35 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
#AD If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £35 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | BeGambleAware.org