Denmark v Scotland Prediction: Jimmy The Punt gives us his best bets for Wednesday's World Cup qualifier
On Wednesday evening Denmark welcome Scotland to the Parken Stadium in the fourth game of their World Cup Qualifying campaign.
The Euro 2020 semi-finalists currently sit four points clear of Scotland at the top of Group F having won all three of their opening three fixtures. With the Tartan Army only a point clear of third-placed Israel and fourth-placed Austria, a result in Copenhagen will be paramount and will really tighten things up in the hunt for a spot at the World Cup in Qatar.
In terms of team news, Scotland have been riddled with issues as an original squad of 26 has been whittled down to 19- three of which are keepers- due to COVID restrictions with John McGinn and Nathan Patterson unavailable after testing positive. Stephan O’Donnell is the latest confirmed absentee, which leaves Steve Clarke without a recognised right back. Elsewhere, Manchester United’s Scott McTominay is unavailable as he has undergone surgery and Celtic’s duo of James Forrest and Greg Taylor have also withdrawn through injury.
Danish boss Kasper Hjulmand has also lost a large chunk of his squad as seven members have been ruled out. Andreas Cornelius, Jannik Vestergaard, Nicolai Boilesen, Rasmus Falk, and Philip Billing are all unavailable. It also looks as though Martin Braithwaite and Kasper Dolberg will miss this fixture as well which could see Jonas Wind get the nod up top.
Despite the disruption to both squads though, the hosts are clear favourites with the bookmakers to win here priced at around 2/5 here.
Denmark v Scotland Tips
Given the disruption both squads have endured in the run-up to this clash I do not expect a high-scoring affair nor do I think it will be a particularly thrilling encounter. That being said, price-wise, the bookies do expect the Danes to secure three points, so I think that Denmark winning in a game that features three or less goals at a shade under evens is a nice way here.
Three of Scotland’s last four defeats have seen this bet land which I think is a testament to the competitive- albeit a bit bland and boring- ethos Steve Clarke has instilled in this side. The Danes, on the other hand, showcased their fluid brand of attacking football at the Euro’s as they followed an undeserved defeat to Belgium by putting four past both of their next two opponents, Russia and Wales. That being said, as previously mentioned, it is worth noting that they are missing some key attacking players which is why I do not think they will be able to dismiss this Scottish team with the same gusto as we saw them thrash sides in the summer.
Over the course of his career, Christian Norgaard has only completed 318 minutes of football for his nation as he has made nine appearances- seven of which from the bench- since 2018. However, with Phillip Billing having withdrawn from the squad with illness and Thomas Delaney not playing much football so far this season in Sevilla, Brentford's central midfielder looks set to start in the middle of the park tomorrow.
So far domestically this season, in the English top-flight, Norgaard has played every minute of the campaign for the Bee’s and picked up two cards in three games, topping his sides charts in terms of ill-discipline averaging 2.7 fouls per game as well.
At club level, he has a career average of 0.23 cards per 90- which does make his price slight value- however, the distribution of those is interesting. At 17-years-old, during his debut for Lyngby, an 18-minute cameo, he was booked. In his first season at Brondby he averaged 0.44 cards per 90 as he picked three up in 609 minutes of game time. Then, in his maiden season at Brentford he picked up 11 cards, and finally, as previously mentioned, he has already been carded twice in the Premier League.
The point being that he does seem to make a tenacious start to a new venture. Therefore, if he does get the opportunity to establish himself for the Red and White tomorrow, I think he will be keen to justify Kasper Hjulmand’s faith in him which could transcend into a card.
It is also worth noting that his direct opponent will be Scotland’s lynchpin Billy Gilmour. Everything goes through the central midfielder so stopping him will be pivotal if the Danes are going to stand any chance of victory here. Gilmour’s small stature and the sheer time he spends on the ball should make him a bit of a foul magnet.
For a bit of a juicier longshot, you can combine a Norgaard card with Lyndon Dykes to join him in the book at 28/1 via Betfair’s ‘Same game Multi’ feature.
Dykes’ rough and tumble nature means that he is never far away from a bit of beef. During his time up North, he picked up 29 cards in 125 appearances as he averaged 0.25 per 90. For his nation, he has averaged 0.29 cards per 90 and will do well not to add to his tally as he grapples with Danish centre-back Simon Kjaer.
Best of luck if you are following any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.
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