Birmingham vs. West Brom Predictions: Chances galore in this Midlands Derby

Sunday afternoon sees West Brom make the short trip across the Midlands to St Andrew’s. 

Under the tutelage of their new boss Steve Bruce, WBA have endured quite a turbulent few months picking up just eight points from a potential 27, with their only victory in that time coming against leaders Fulham. If they are going to stand any chance of making the play-offs, a victory is a must here. 

The visitors will be without January signing Daryl Dike for this one after Bruce confirmed in his press conference the striker has not recovered from an injury and is struggling to settle since his switch from Florida. 

Birmingham boss Lee Bowyer has five long term absentees to contend with, however, his attack will be bolstered by the return of Lyle Taylor. The forward has recovered from a calf injury and should partner Tahith Chong in attack.

In their last game before the international break,Bowyer’s side drew 0-0 away at Swansea despite generating an xG of 2.92 from 16 shots. This was the final game of a three game stint during which the Blues failed to score, despite generating a combined xG of 4.11! 

Prior to that, both teams to score had clicked in eleven of Birmingham’s 13 league games since the turn of the year, during which time they only failed to score once. 

As for the visitors, it is tricky to anticipate what sort of performance you are going to get from them under their new supremo. 

Thus far, Bruce has overseen nine league games. His side failed to score in the first three, failed to pick up any points in the first five games- during which time all but ruling themselves out of the play-off race- then,, in their penultimate game before the international break they beat the best side in the league 1-0 and it was fully deserved too! 

The facts are, the Baggies have a very talented squad, yet have shipped 1.33 goals per game under Bruce. 

All things considered, at the prices available I think both teams to score is worth a punt here.

Such is his ability, Chong has been utilised in a host of different positions by Bowyer this season; centre midfield, attacking midfield on the right and upfront. His last three starts have come in the latter which makes his price in the goalscorer market very interesting. 

The Manchester United loanee has started four games for Birmingham upfront, during which time he has scored once- his only goal for the Blues to date- averaged two shots per game and generated an xG of 1.02. 

Interestingly, he has averaged 1.5 shots per game when he is not upfront, which is 0.5 shots a game less. Overall, this season he has generated a total xG of 2.58, 39.5% of that was generated during the games he started ST, in less than a quarter of his total game time!

All of the above is just highlighting that the underlying data depicts the very obvious fact that, if a player plays further forward, then he provides much more of a goal threat. Given this revelation, Betfair’s price of 7/1 for a player of Premier League quality, to score at any time is simply too big, provided he starts upfront that is.

Chong only has one professional domestic goal to his name, that is an average of 0.04 per 90, therefore, you would need something north of 24/1 for value in the goalscorer market. So why would bookmakers like Sky Bet have him at 33/1 to score a brace? That is twice that amount he has managed in his career so far. 

Well, if you were to base his price in the goalscorer market purely on his xG per game as a striker (0.25), then 3/1 would be perfectly apt, which goes a little way to explaining William Hill’s price of 16/5. 

Granted it is a very, very small sample size but it illustrates the scope for value in Betfair’s price of 7/1. It is also why I could not resist his price of 100/1 to treble his career goals tally.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.