UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig Prediction and Betting Tips
Following up from a thoroughly fulfilling card at UFC 295 in New York, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headline the latest Fight Night card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
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The #10 and #13 ranked middleweights both enter the octagon this weekend with the opportunity to make a real statement here. "All In" is looking to make it a sixth consecutive win in the division, having subbed his last three opponents on Fight Night cards. With just two losses on his UFC record, one of those coming to the current middleweight champion Sean Strickland, the American must seize this opportunity to climb the rankings and starting building towards the elusive title contention spot with a dominant performance against the former light heavyweight contender Paul Craig.
"Bearjew" had a topsy turvy time at 205lbs, suffering back-to-back defeats, with a first round stoppage against Johnny Walker proving the catalyst for his shift down to middleweight. The Scotsman, whose most notable victory at light heavyweight came over former champion Jamahal Hill who relinquished his belt in July due to injury, appears to have found a new home at 185lbs, ultimately seeing off Andre Muniz in a well-contested fight on London's Fight Night card in July. Consecutive victories at this weight class would cement Craig as a real force to be reckoned with at middleweight, especially with everything to play for now that there's a new man atop the throne.
UFC Fight Night Allen vs Craig Tips
UFC fights are tough to call at the best of times, but we're having great difficulty separating these two. The pair share a lot of the same skillset and this weekend's meeting could see them mirror one another in a lot of ways. Allen has the advantage with his hands, while Craig will fancy himself to do damage in the kickboxing ranges. The conviction in Allen's stand up game and Craig's growing striking abilities means we're likely to see a good chunk of action take place here before a takedown is attempted by either party.
There's a slight confidence advantage for Allen, who has retooled his approach to stay more patient and fight with more measure during the latter stages of his four-year stint with the organisation. Andre Muniz provided a breakthrough win for both of these fighters in 2023 and the significance of the pair's performances during their most recent outings should see them both exercise some restraint in this five rounder.
Both have insinuated that we're likely to see this battle mostly play out on the feet despite people's assertions that two grapplers will be unable not to eventually take this to the mat. Allen is typically more mindful of putting himself into strong positions whereas Craig is a submission hunter who has four triangle chokes from seven submission wins on his UFC record.
With a line of under/over 1.5 at almost even money we're happy to take the overs for this bout to see at least 10 minutes before a stoppage has any chance of bringing a halt to proceedings in Las Vegas.
Interestingly, if or when this fight is taken to the floor, it won't be the usual scramble for top position that we see. Paul Craig, who seeks low-percentage subs from his back, will afford Allen this spot, making their grappling exchanges a really exciting prospect.
In this division, if Craig is on his back, he's going to have a much easier time moving people than he did at light heavyweight. As we saw in his bout with Muniz, Bearjew did all of the right things to ensure that he made the 185lbs limit, displaying no signs of fatigue and showing no indication of a loss of strength at this weight. That's an exceptional edge he has when facing All In, who will make his presence known with body locks in the wrestling exchanges, and who has also had a lot of success against southpaws having fought seven in his 13 fights since joining the UFC.
That southpaw vs orthodox dynamic means we're likely to get a series of kickboxing trades early on, and that's a benefit for Craig. The fact that the Scotsman can make middleweight is very impressive, as he was no small LHW despite certain individuals in that division making him appear that way. So if he does can his range spot on and connects with one of these shots to Allen's leg, he's going to hurt him badly. If he does that, we could well see a repeat of Craig's finish over Muniz, which ended with him on top, throwing sharp elbows before the referee intervened.
The 35-year-old Scot has great belief in his own striking game, which is why it'd be a big gamble to back him to submit Allen, especially from bottom position. At odds of 7/2 it pays to side with the underdog when there isn't much to separate these two, and although many roads point to a stoppage in this fight, we'll take the generalised selection from the match result market to hedge our bets a little more than placing exactly where Craig will win.
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