UFC 289 Nunes vs. Aldana Betting Tips: Preview, predictions and best bets for Vancouver main event

The UFC's sixth trip to Vancouver is headlined by a competitive Women's Bantamweight title fight between Champion-once-again Amanda Nunes and top five Mexican contender Irene Aldana.

There aren't quite enough superlatives to describe Amanda Nunes. "The Lioness" is likely to go down as one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time, serving as a great champion and holding down two weight classes. The way she dominantly regained her bantamweight crown back from Julianna Pena at UFC 277 makes it frustrating that the scheduled trilogy bout isn't happening as this main event, but her matchup with Aldana shouldn't be written off as inconsequential.

On the back of her teammates' meteoric rise to UFC gold in 2023 - Brandon Moreno, Alexa Grasso and Interim Featherweight Champion Yair Rodriguez - Aldana will be eyeing up completing the Mexican "fantastic four" in Canada this weekend. It's been a topsy turvy path for the 35-year-old in the organisation up until this point, opening with two straight losses and suffering a further two defeats in the nine fights she's had since. Saturday's opportunity could be a single roll of the dice to cast her name in lights on the biggest of stages.

With the recent shock losses for Lioness and Valentina Shevchenko in the flyweight division, it's proven that the women's champions aren't invincible after all. For some, Irene Aldana will be a live dog in this fight at quoted odds of around 11/4 in the win market.

She can bring a lot of skills to the table that could be problematic for the Brazilian Nunes, so it won't be quite the one sided affair that many are tipping.

The pair share a similar takedown defence percentage, but this figure is more impressive given how many more fighters have attempted to take Aldana down than they have Nunes.

Nunes has landed fewer significant strikes than her Mexican counterpart. However, she also boasts more knockouts on her résumé, evidencing the kind of power she's packing.

Finally, the Mexican hasn't been finished since 2015, while Nunes has only scored one finish in her last five fights. That's why the line of over 2.5 rounds allows punters an entry point without committing to choosing a winner of this contest.

As mentioned, Nunes delivered a wonderful showing to reclaim her strap at UFC 277. She added a lot of new variations to her game, quashing any belief that complacency or retirement plans have overshadowed her mindset.

Although Aldana will be no walk over, there are simply more variations for Nunes to win. She can push forward and beat the Mexican up at close range, play on the outside with low kicks and body kicks, or close the fight down and take her to the ground.

"Robles" is a really slick boxer with good footwork, but that constant motion over 25 minutes is eventually going to slow her down. That's exactly what you don't want against a tough fighter like Nunes who can see out championship fights.

For Irene to win she has to have a game plan for each of the different versions of Nunes that could turn up. The Mexican hasn't changed much from her Invicta days to now in the UFC - she's the same technical boxer, only physically stronger and more athletic.

A large disadvantage for her is how Robles gets railroaded into one particular game plan against southpaws. We saw a frustrating 25 minutes where she circled Holly Holm around the octagon, whereas Nunes flaunted her ability to switch stances and knocked Pena down a few times in their last meeting with that counter left hook.

Nunes shouldn't brawl if she doesn't have to - something she should be fully aware of. If she deploys the strategy of staying on the outside, maintaining her distance and using her kicking game like she did successfully in her fight with Holly Holm, it's doubtful Aldana will have any answers.

She's also likely to take this fight to the mat, knowing she'll have the advantage in controlling Irene and using her elbows on the inside.

Ultimately, the ferocity of Amanda Nunes and the way she regrouped to win back her belt is too much to overlook her claiming the victory here. Saying that, Aldana is yet to be finished in the UFC, so we believe she'll be durable enough to last the five rounds before losing a decision.