UFC 286 Edwards vs. Usman Betting Tips: A successful first title defence on home soil

UK fight fans at the ready: your champion has returned to defend his belt!

Welterweight king Leon Edwards - only the second ever English UFC title holder - welcomes Kamaru Usman into enemy territory at the O2 in London to settle the score in their trilogy bout.

The 170-pound crown is on the line as 'Rocky' makes his first defence since that sensational night in Salt Lake City, Utah, seven months ago.

Whether you're a fresh or seasoned UFC fan, see what you make of our Edwards vs Usman 3 fight inspection, rounded out with a couple of suggested bets.

Edwards has walked the long road to get where he is. Staring down the barrel of a second decisive loss to 'The Nigerian Nightmare' after 2015's first encounter, the unassuming Leon applied the message communicated to him by coach Dave Lovell to "pull this out of the fire" with just one minute remaining on the clock.

This unexpected last ditch burst of life, which resurrected a largely flat performance, saw the challenger choreograph arguably the sport's most devastating title fight knockout and underpinned exactly why you can't write off an unlikely hero like Rocky. In Leon's own words, "They all doubted, said I couldn't do it. They all said I couldn't do it. Look at me now! Pound-for-pound. Headshot. Dead. That's it."

It's only right that after putting together 15 consecutive wins, including five title defences, Usman is offered an immediate shot at Welterweight redemption. Pair that with the UK's first pay-per-view event since 2016 and fight fans have a very exciting headliner in store on Saturday.

Leon enters the Octagon given roughly a 30% chance of retaining gold according to the odds, which is simply too tempting to refuse.

The x-factors at play are what have swayed our decision. We're firstly unsure whether Usman's devastating knockout will have altered his mental state. Top fighters have been irreparably changed after similar KOs and only a seven month layoff may have compromised his brain's recovery.

Pit that alongside Edwards' sky-high confidence and the makings of a heroic victory are beginning to form. Not only did he send Usman to the shadow realm from a move that was meticulously drilled during camp, but he also stands as the only UFC fighter to put the former P4P king to the sword.

Many have questioned Leon's performance in the fight that earned him the Welterweight strap, but most backing against him here are overlooking how significantly the Utah altitude affected him. That location is the third highest state in the US, with a mean elevation of 6,100 feet above sea level. Usman trained not too far off that figure for a number of weeks, while Edwards' preparations were not nearly as acclimatising.

With the London crowd behind him and a fight alongside the banks of the River Thames, Leon won't require the same measure of rallying should he find himself down by a couple of rounds this time.

Finally, one stat underlined our decision to side with the Brummie. Former champions trying to win back their title in immediate rematches are 3-11 in the UFC - with only Randy Couture, Deiveson Figueiredo and Amanda Nunes proving exceptions to the rule.

If there's one thing clear to us going into Saturday, it's that this fight will look very different to either of their previous two meetings.

Seven months isn't long to condition yourself, practice lessons from the previous bout and introduce new techniques to holster for a rematch. You could level this warning at both fighters, except when one flatlines another in the fashion that Leon did to Usman, the odds heavily stack up in the current champ's favour.

Usman didn't stay in the clinch range for too long in Utah, which will no doubt be his tactic this time given the outcome. He has to limit the possibility of those destructive kicks which means the Nigerian has to close the distance to either trade with Rocky or to wrestle with him. He'll have drawn some comfort in the success he had with his close range boxing and that suggests he'll be happy to stand up with his adversary.

But the reality is that Rocky has plenty more to offer in this third fight. The 170lbs king will look for different ways to beat Usman, and has a variety of options available at his disposal. Edwards is one tough individual, with good takedown defence and submission defence. 

And although Usman has strong wrestling capabilities, don't rule out a submission for Rocky. Leon has three on his record - two rear naked chokes and an arm triangle - while Usman has tapped once before and suffered his first career takedown to Edwards in Utah.

The belt holder's mobility can be decisive if he explores this avenue, especially when he's so effective at taking the back. If Kamaru does want to clinch, Edwards' cutting knees and elbows can come into effect, or he has good work from the body lock to fall back on. Close range fighting won't unsettle him, let's put it that way.

As far as the numbers are concerned, Edwards' precision striking does result in him throwing a significantly smaller volume of strikes (2.59-4.55 per minute), but it's also worth noting that Usman's figures are skewed due to him landing a lot on the ground.

Like Lovell urged previously, Leon has to get his hands going and even be prepared to get ugly out there if the tide turns. It's on him to push the pace on a 35-year-old Usman, and that's exactly what we expect from his hometown return.