Travis Kelce, Russell Wilson and Isiah Pacheco Prop Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs on 10/12/2023

The worst defense in the NFL faces the best quarterback on the planet.

Yeah, I think we’re going to see some fireworks when the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs play on Thursday Night Football.

The Chiefs are double-digit favorites, and even at that lofty spread, they are the pick to cover. The scoring total is set at 49 points for this showdown.

In addition to the standard betting lines, here are three prop bets to consider for the matchup.

Prop Bet Pick: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Over/Under 6.5 Receptions

Taylor Swift’s boyfriend hasn’t quite been the same dominant force in 2023 as he has been in the past.

Kelce is on pace to set career lows in yards per reception (8.2) and yards per target (6.0), while his receiving yardage average of 55.5 is at its lowest figure since 2015. 

Now, it’s only been four games, and he’s also been dealing with injuries. Will Kelce break out against the porous Broncos?

I think it could be another pedestrian game. Kelce is 34 years old and he may be slipping a bit physically. He's also dealing with an ankle injury.

Additionally, the Chiefs may get ahead by so much in this game that Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need to throw much in the fourth quarter. Denver’s run defense is abysmal as well, all of which adds up to six or fewer receptions.

Prediction: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Under 6.5 Receptions (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop Bet Pick: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Over/Under 74.5 Rushing Yards

Pacheco has ascended to clear-cut workhorse running back status, as Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are bit pieces at this point.

He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and gets an absolutely wonderful matchup on Thursday Night Football against the Broncos.

Denver is allowing 5.9 yards per carry on the season, and the only starting running back it has held to fewer than 75 rushing yards was Josh Jacobs in Week 1.

The Chiefs obviously have Mahomes and a pass-happy coach in Andy Reid, but if the ground game is working, Kansas City won’t just ignore it.

Pacheco should have a big day against the Broncos, and 75 rushing yards or more is certainly attainable.

Prediction: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco over 74.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop Bet Pick: Broncos QB Russell Wilson Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards

Wilson has bounced back this season, as he is averaging 242 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

The Broncos would like to run the ball to keep it away from the Chiefs offense, but if they get behind then Wilson will be tasked with pushing the ball downfield.

He is a guy who will take sacks and doesn’t always have great volume, so I’m going to stay away from the passing attempts over/under of 32.5.

However, Wilson is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt this year and has a track record of connecting on deep balls, which is one of his best traits.

Between game script and chunk plays, I like Wilson to surpass 220 passing yards against Kansas City on Thursday Night Football.

Prediction: Broncos QB Russell Wilson over 220.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop Bets Record Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 25-16