Bills vs. Chiefs Picks & Best Bets 26th Jan 2025: NFL Week 21 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The Kansas City Chiefs will meet the Buffalo Bills in NFL action on Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET.
We run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using state-of-the-art AI technology to identify the best Bills vs. Chiefs bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Chiefs will likely beat the Bills with a projected final score of 24-23.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we constantly monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Bills vs. Chiefs picks fuse the power of AI, stats and analytics to generate NFL picks that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Bills vs. Chiefs Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, January 26th, 2025
- Game Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Spread: Bills +1.5 / Chiefs -1.5
- Moneyline: Bills -102 / Chiefs -115
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 49.5 Points (-108/-110)
Chiefs -1.5 @ -102 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Bills and Chiefs have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Chiefs -1.5 due to DraftKings Sportsbook's more favorable odds of -102.
Total Points Under 49.5 @ -110 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 49.5, with DraftKings Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -110.
- Our analysis suggests a 53% probability of the 49.5-point total staying under, providing an edge of 1.1%.
Bills vs. Chiefs Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Buffalo Bills at -102 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Kansas City Chiefs are available at -115 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 54% chance of prevailing.
Additionally, the Chiefs present the best betting value, with the odds of -115 available at BetMGM for an edge of 0.3%.
Our Player Prop Picks for Bills vs. Chiefs
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup.
Buffalo Bills Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
James Cook | 65 yds | 40% |
Josh Allen | 39 yds | 47% |
Ray Davis | 19 yds | 14% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Khalil Shakir | 55 yds | 28% |
Keon Coleman | 31 yds | 18% |
Dalton Kincaid | 31 yds | 18% |
Josh Allen Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen Under 50.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | -108 |
- Our top prop bet for the Bills is for Josh Allen to record under 50.5 rushing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 80.9%, giving us an edge of 28.9% on the -108 odds offered by DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Kareem Hunt | 34 yds | 40% |
Isiah Pacheco | 33 yds | 25% |
Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 17% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Travis Kelce | 69 yds | 42% |
Xavier Worthy | 53 yds | 34% |
Hollywood Brown | 33 yds | 23% |
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Rushing Yards (+104)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +104 |
- Our best prop bet for the Chiefs is for Xavier Worthy to record under 3.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 69.2%, providing an edge of 20.2% on the +104 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Bills vs. Chiefs trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Samaje Perine Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Samaje Perine has recorded more than 7.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games (90% of the time). You can wager on him to go over 7.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Ty Johnson Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
Ty Johnson has had more than 9.5 rushing yards in 5 of his last 5 appearances (100%). You can place a wager on him to record over 9.5 rushing yards again at odds of -105 (51%), available at FanDuel.
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Passing Attempts
Patrick Mahomes has had more than 36.5 passing attempts in 6 of his last 7 appearances (86%). You can wager on him to record over 36.5 passing attempts again at odds of -105 (51%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Josh Allen of the Bills to record Rushing Yards 50.5 rushing yards, with an edge of 28.9% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are betting on the Chiefs -1.5 to cover.
Beyond our Bills vs. Chiefs predictions, we offer extensive NFL betting tools. These include the latest NFL betting odds and insightful NFL expert picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our NFL best bets and dive into our NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.