Texans vs. Chiefs Picks & Best Bets 18th Jan 2025: NFL Week 20 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Houston Texans in NFL action on Saturday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
We have performed 10,000 simulations of Saturday's NFL matchup using state-of-the-art AI technology to highlight the best Texans vs. Chiefs bets, player props and predictions.
Using these simulations, we predict that the Chiefs will likely beat the Texans with a projected final score of 23-16.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we continually monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Texans vs. Chiefs picks combine the power of AI, data and analytics to create NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Texans vs. Chiefs Game Information
- Game Date: Saturday, January 18th, 2025
- Game Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Spread: Texans +9.5 / Chiefs -9.5
- Moneyline: Texans +410 / Chiefs -550
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 41.5 Points (-110/-108)
Texans +9.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
- According to our simulations, the Texans have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the Chiefs have a probability of 45%.
- BetMGM offers odds of -110 for the Texans +9.5, providing a favorable 2.4% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Under 41.5 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 41.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the under at -108.
- Our analysis suggests a 55% probability of the 41.5-point total staying under, providing an edge of 3%.
Texans vs. Chiefs Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Houston Texans at +410 via DraftKings Sportsbook, whilst the Kansas City Chiefs are available at -550 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 79% chance of victory.
Even though the Chiefs are more likely to win, DraftKings Sportsbook offers +410 odds on the Texans moneyline, providing an edge of 1.7%. This makes it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Texans vs. Chiefs
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Saturday's Texans vs. Chiefs game.
Houston Texans Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 64 yds | 36% |
| C.J. Stroud | 13 yds | 17% |
| Dameon Pierce | 7 yds | 4% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 87 yds | 44% |
| Dalton Schultz | 32 yds | 28% |
| John Metchie | 32 yds | 18% |
Xavier Hutchinson Under 1.5 Receptions (-114)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson Under 1.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -114 |
- Our top prop bet for the Texans is for Xavier Hutchinson to record under 1.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 77.6%, providing an edge of 24.3% on the -114 odds offered by FanDuel.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 45 yds | 36% |
| Kareem Hunt | 32 yds | 34% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 18% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 61 yds | 33% |
| Xavier Worthy | 49 yds | 31% |
| Hollywood Brown | 39 yds | 26% |
Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +100 |
- Our best prop bet for the Chiefs is for Xavier Worthy to record under 5.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 74.3%, giving us an edge of 24.3% on the +100 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Texans vs. Chiefs trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Samaje Perine Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
Samaje Perine has recorded more than 10.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 6 appearances (100% success rate). You can put money on him to record 11+ receiving yards again at odds of -105 (51% implied probability), available at DraftKings.
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Passing Attempts
Patrick Mahomes has had more than 36.5 passing attempts in 6 of his last 6 games (100%). You can place a wager on him to record over 36.5 passing attempts again at odds of -102 (50%), available at FanDuel.
Noah Gray Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Noah Gray has had more than 11.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 9 games (67%). You can wager on him to record over 11.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Xavier Hutchinson of the Texans to record Receptions 1.5 receptions, with an edge of 24.3% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're placing a bet on the Texans +9.5 to cover.
In addition to our Texans vs. Chiefs predictions, we offer extensive NFL betting tools. These include the latest NFL odds and insightful NFL predictions to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our NFL best bets and dive into our NFL expert insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the top NFL betting sites.
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