Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 Predictions, Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet, Picks and Odds 10/12/23

Bad news for the Denver Broncos: they have rolled out a historically poor defense through five weeks.

Worse news: Patrick Mahomes is up next.

The Broncos are traveling to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, and unsurprisingly, they enter as heavy underdogs. 

The oddsmakers are expecting plenty of points between these two teams and a comfortable win for Kansas City. Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of BetMGM on October 10.

Spread: Chiefs -10.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -550; Broncos +400
Over/Under: 49 points

The Chiefs are No. 6 in offensive efficiency this season and boast the best quarterback in the game. The big question: will star tight end Travis Kelce be available after suffering an ankle injury last week against the Lions?

He seems on track to play, and even if he’s limited, it’s hard to foresee the Broncos’ woeful defense holding up against Mahomes. (Update: Kelce is expected to play against the Broncos)

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction

The Chiefs have won four consecutive games after a season-opening loss to the Lions. They are tied for the best record in the AFC and are once again on the short list of Super Bowl favorites.

Mahomes is No. 4 in the NFL in Total QBR and is going to be a tough matchup for the Broncos. Denver is allowing 36.2 points per game and had 70 dropped on it by the Dolphins.

Mahomes should feast in this matchup, and it will be up to Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense to keep up. Will that happen? Unlikely.

Wilson has been better this season but the offense is still about league average, and the Chiefs’ pass-rush will be able to get revved up if Kansas City takes the lead.

This one has all the signs of a blowout incoming.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Broncos 20

Prop Bet Pick: Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Over/Under 36.5 Yards

It’s tricky deciding on Patrick Mahomes’ yardage total, because the Chiefs may take their foot off the gas if they grab an insurmountable lead.

However, it feels like he’s going to come up with several big plays to help them get there.

The Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill anymore going deep but the Denver defense is so bad that explosive plays will happen. Some of that will come in the run game, but the Broncos really struggle to rush the passer.

So will defensive coordinator blitz, generally a no-no against Mahomes? Will he give the star quarterback a bunch of time in the pocket to survey the field?

However you dice it up, there will be ample opportunity for Mahomes to complete a pass of 37 or more yards in this one, and I’m not going to be the one betting against him.

Prediction: Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 36.5 yards (-120 at BetMGM)

How To Watch Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 12th, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The game can be watched on Amazon Prime Video.