NFL Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks Against the Spread for Week 10
I’m on a tear with the prop bets, but these spread picks have been painstakingly average for about a month.
So I’ve decided to be much better this week. Let’s get to it. Odds courtesy of PointsBet on November 9th.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Chicago Bears
Thursday, November 9th, 2023
Tyson Bagent vs. Bryce Young! No Brian Burns!
What a treat on Thursday night. The only thing keeping our attention is the way it affects the draft order.
And our bets, of course. I’m rolling with the Panthers against the spread in an absolute slopfest.
Score prediction: Bears 17, Panthers 14
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
The Colts are the much better team when it comes to DVOA, and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew is actually top-10 in Total QBR this year.
The game is in Germany, and it’s hard to know how the travel will affect each team, but this is an easy call to me.
Score prediction: Colts 23, Patriots 17
Pick: Colts -1.5
Tennessee Titans (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Will Levis is officially the starting quarterback in Tennessee. He’s looked quite good so far but this is a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay defense, especially if Vita Vea can get back to full strength.
I like the Bucs at home.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 21, Titans 16
Pick: Buccaneers -1
Houston Texans (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
C.J. Stroud is impressing everyone as a rookie, and the Texans are playing some solid ball.
The Bengals, though, have found their groove and are a handful to stop. Injuries are a big deal in this one, as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could be out or limited.
I really like what Houston has going and believe the Texans will stay close.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Texans 21
Pick: Texans +6.5
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Vikings fans, get ready for the Joshua Dobbs experience.
The journeyman quarterback galvanized the city with an incredible comeback last week, but inconsistency has been a hallmark trait of Dobbs, and this is a really tough matchup.
The Saints defense may feast.
Score prediction: Saints 24, Vikings 14
Pick: Saints -3
Green Bay Packers (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
The Steelers could actually move to 6-3 with a win here despite being one of the most frustrating teams to watch in the NFL.
I think their luck runs out. I don’t think much of Green Bay but the moneyline odds of +150 are too enticing in a matchup of underwhelming offenses.
Score prediction: Packers 19, Steelers 17
Pick: Packers +3
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Very interesting showdown here. I do think the Jaguars are legit but I can’t fathom the 49ers losing four straight.
San Francisco is the pick to get the rushing attack rolling and pull away from the Jaguars.
Score prediction: 49ers 28, Jaguars 21
Pick: 49ers -3
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
The Browns were dominant last week in a win over the lowly Cardinals but this is a much tougher matchup.
Baltimore’s impressive rushing attack takes away some of Cleveland’s pass-rush dominance, and I have very little faith that Deshaun Watson can move the ball consistently against the Ravens.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 13
Pick: Ravens -6.5
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Kyler Murray will be back in action for the Cardinals in this one. Arizona is still the underdog for a 10th consecutive game this season, but only a slight one.
The Falcons are No. 25 in defensive efficiency this season and have serious issues at quarterback.
There will likely be some rust for Murray, but his arm talent is unquestionable. The Cardinals should get a dose of dopamine with a win in Murray’s debut.
The moneyline odds are +105, which seems like good value. I’ll roll with Arizona in hopes of moving to 9-1 against the spread in Cardinals games this season.
Score prediction: Cardinals 24, Falcons 21
Pick: Cardinals +1.5
Detroit Lions (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
The Lions are No. 4 overall in Team DVOA and top-10 on both sides of the ball. The Chargers have a good offense but are not as balanced.
The numbers lean Detroit but I’m not feeling it. The Chargers are at home and have the buffer with the spread in case they lose by a field goal. I’ll roll with Justin Herbert, who I think can move the ball against Detroit.
I think this game will be close, so I’ll take the points.
Score prediction: Chargers 27, Lions 24
Pick: Chargers +3
New York Giants (+17) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Wow. That’s a spread.
The Giants’ Cinderella run to the playoffs last season is a distant memory, and now New York seems firmly entrenched in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
Danny DeVito or whoever is the quarterback for New York, so I’ll roll with the vastly superior Dallas team and hope I don’t get bit by a garbage time cover.
Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 10
Pick: Cowboys -17
Washington Commanders (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
Geno Smith has reverted back to mediocre this season, and Seattle needs him to play better to be a true contender in the NFC.
But the Seahawks still have a much better roster than Washington and get this game at home.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Commanders 17
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
New York Jets (+0.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
I’m a little surprised the Jets are underdogs. Yes, Zach Wilson is trash, but Aidan O’Connell is a rookie who turns the ball over like, well, a rookie.
The Jets have a great defense and I think that will lift them to the victory.
Score prediction: Jets 21, Raiders 13
Pick: Jets +0.5
Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 12th, 2023
The advanced metrics and the oddsmakers still love the Bills. The Broncos have won two straight and have gotten some defensive issues ironed out, but I think the talent gulf in this one is pretty wide.
Denver must replicate its recent defensive showings a few more times for me to full believe in a turnaround, and I don’t see it happening against Josh Allen and Buffalo.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Broncos 21
Pick: Bills -7.5
Last Week: 7-7
Overall Record: 70-61-2
