Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears: Adam Thielen Prop Bet, Week 10 TNF Predictions, Picks and Odds

The Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears will face off in a pivotal Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 10.

Does the winner get into the Super Bowl conversation? No. Do they get back into the playoff chase? No.

My friends, this is a huge game… in the battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

The Panthers currently have the second-worst record in the NFL and the Bears are third-worst, and Chicago owns both first-round picks after grabbing Carolina’s in the Bryce Young trade this offseason.

A win by the Bears would keep Carolina alongside the Cardinals as the only one-loss teams in the NFL, while a mini-upset by the Panthers would give each team two victories on the year.

The worst team in the NFL often finishes with only three or four wins, so the way this one goes could have an outsized effect on the draft. The Bears are the favorites even though their quarterback situation is in flux heading into the matchup.

Spread: Bears -3.5
Moneyline: Bears -175; Panthers +145
Scoring Total: Over/Under 40 points

Chicago’s starting quarterback, Justin Fields, is trying to return from a thumb injury this week, though it remains to be seen if he will be on the field against the Panthers. 

That’s obviously a huge storyline and will affect the betting odds for this matchup. (Update: Fields will not play against Carolina.)

While we should get more clarity later in the week, I’m not sold on the Bears doing much offensively with Fields or Tyson Bagent. The Panthers aren’t a good football team but I think they will hang around in an ugly matchup.

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Prediction

Both of these teams are in a rough place.

The Bears were projected to take a big step forward in Fields’ third season at the helm but still look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Carolina gave up a bunch of draft capital to get Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick, and it certainly looks like that was an error as No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud shines in Houston.

Each team struggles on both sides of the ball and are bottom-5 in Team DVOA, so it feels like a slopfest awaits.

Young has been bad all year and Bagent has been a turnover machine while filling in for Fields. The Bears are a slightly better team and the addition of Montez Sweat at the deadline has beefed up their defense, but I’m happy to take Carolina knowing that a field goal margin either way results in a cover.

The Bears are the pick to win, though, and keep Carolina on pace to compete for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

Prediction: Bears 17, Panthers 14

Prop Bet Pick: Panthers WR Adam Thielen Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards

Thielen has put together one of the more surprising campaigns in recent years, catching 62 passes for 610 yards and four touchdowns in eight games at age-33.

Thielen only had 716 receiving yards all of last season and has done this despite a passing game that has struggled.

Bryce Young certainly has a good rapport with Thielen and that’s shown up, but this prop bet yardage seems way too high to me.

Thielen has reached 74 receiving yards in four of eight games this year but his stat lin screams regression to me. Thielen is averaging career highs in catches per game (7.8) and catch percentage (81.6%) and I don’t think it’s sustainable.

Plus, the Panthers have been down big in many games this season, forcing them to air it out late. This one should be closer against a similarly-talented opponent, and I envision a quieter day for Thielen.

Prediction: Panthers WR Adam Thielen under 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

How to Watch Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears will host the Carolina Panthers at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 9th, 2023, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game can be watched on Amazon Prime Video.