Cardinals vs. Falcons NFL Odds: Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown Prop Bets, Predictions
The Arizona Cardinals might be the worst team in the NFL, but State Farm Stadium will be buzzing for a normally-non-descript matchup with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
Why?
After a long road to recovery from a torn ACL, quarterback Kyler Murray is back. I’ve logged my prediction for the game, along with every other matchup in Week 10.
The prop bets have been unveiled, and of course we are focusing big-time on Murray this week.
Player props are going well of late, with a 10-2 record over my past 12, and I feel quite good about these three predictions.
Prop Bet Pick: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray Over/Under 216.5 Passing Yards
Murray has an identical passing yardage over/under to Taylor Heinecke. I can see you shaking your head through the screen as we speak.
I thought this prop would come in around 230 yards so it’s one I’m definitely going to bet.
It’s unknown how the Cardinals plan to use Murray, and it would be of little surprise if he has less volume under a new coaching staff than his previous four years in the Air Raid.
But even if Arizona puts a renewed emphasis on the ground game, Murray is still a game-changer at quarterback and will be used often to move the ball downfield. And if the ground game is working, then chunk plays could be much more common than last season.
Murray’s mobility is likely going to be slowed for at least the first few weeks of his comeback, which is another reason I like the over on this play. While he’s known for his legs, Murray has above average arm talent and can get the job done in the pocket.
Arizona is expected to have rookie standout Michael Wilson back for this game, giving Murray another solid option in the passing game.
Prediction: Kyler Murray over 216.5 passing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Prop Bet Pick: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray Over/Under 26.5 Rushing Yards
We are going in tandem with the passing prop by taking the other side on this one.
Murray has a career average of 5.8 yards per carry and averages 38.7 rushing yards per game. He is one of the most electric rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, but this to me is where the injury will show up the most.
I wouldn’t expect the Cardinals to call many designed runs for Murray in this game as he works his way back from the torn ACL.
He’s so fast that a well-timed scramble can eat up a chunk of this projection in one fell swoop, but I also think Murray will err on the side of caution when defenders are bearing down.
Murray’s legs are a huge part of his game, but I think he will try to stay in the pocket and make plays with his arm for the majority of this contest.
Murray only finished under 27 rushing yards in two games last season, so this is a risk, but I think it’s the sensible play knowing where he’s at physically.
Prediction: Kyler Murray under 26.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Prop Bet Pick: Cardinals WR Hollywood Brown Over/Under 53.5 Receiving Yards
Brown has played well this season, but the statistics don’t necessarily show it.
He is averaging 48.9 receiving yards per game, and that number could be much higher if not for inaccurate passes on a host of deep balls from Joshua Dobbs.
Murray is a huge upgrade for a player of Brown’s skillset, and the numbers bear it out.
In seven games together last season, Brown averaged 75.9 receiving yards per game and was targeted 10.3 times per contest. The chemistry between the pair couldn’t be higher, as Murray and Brown are close friends off the field and that connection translates onto it.
The Falcons are only allowing 5.7 net yards per pass attempt, which is a top-10 in the NFL, but Brown will definitely get his chances, and this yardage prop seems like a great value.
There is also an alternate receiving yards prop for Brown which pays out at +260 if he gets to 80 yards or more, which could be enticing for those who project a big day.
Prediction: Hollywood Brown over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Prop Bets Record This Week: 2-1
- Overall: 41-30
