Week 5 TNF Predictions: Khalil Herbert, D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin Prop Bets for Bears vs. Commanders 10/5/2023

The Bears and Commanders play on Thursday night, and while it’s not exactly a top-level showdown, it’s an interesting one for betting purposes.

Chicago has been absolutely awful against the pass this season, but the Commanders have not exactly lit the world on fire through the air.

On the flip-side, Justin Fields and the Chicago offense finally showed some signs of life in last week’s loss to the Broncos.

The Commanders are near-touchdown favorites in this game, but despite their early woes, I like the Bears to cover the spread.

Here are three prop bets to consider in addition to the regular betting action.

Prop Bet Pick: Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert Over/Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

I love this bet. Herbert is coming off an 18-carry, 103-yard performance against the Broncos and is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Herbert has a rush yards over expected per attempt of 0.66, which is 13th-best in the NFL.

He played 78% of the offensive snaps against Denver and easily outplayed backup running back Roscon Johnson in that contest.

There is the concern of this game going sideways and the Bears getting away from the run, but they will want to stick with it to mitigate the Washington pass-rush.

Easy choice for me on this one, especially since it’s a slight underdog play.

Prediction: Bears RB Khalil Herbert over 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Prop Bet Pick: Chicago Bears WR D.J. Moore Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards

Moore had eight catches for 131 yards and a touchdown last week, but oddsmakers are refusing to bump up his total despite that dominant day.

Moore has quickly become the No. 1 target for Fields, as Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are both lagging behind statistically.

He can win both on intermediate routes and long balls, which is a great combination to bet on.

The Bears’ passing game can be very hit-or-miss and if Fields has an off day it won’t be easy, but Moore is the clear-cut top option and I’m happy to go with that when a 50-yard day hits the over.

Prediction: Bears WR D.J. Moore Over/Under 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop Bet Pick: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin Over/Under 60.5 Receiving Yards

The Bears have been an embarrassment as a pass defense, giving up an average net yards per attempt of 8.3, which is the second-worst in the NFL.

McLaurin has caught 21 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown this season as he remains a clear-cut No. 1 NFL receiver.

Quarterback Sam Howell gets sacked a lot, which might actually be a good thing for this prop bet. If he needs to make deeper throws, McLaurin will be on the receiving end of several targets.

McLaurin had eight catches for 86 yards last time out against the Eagles and he should have another fine showing against a weak Chicago secondary.

Prediction: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin over 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop Bets Record Last Week: 4-5
Overall: 21-14