Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders: Week 5 Predictions, Picks and Odds 10/5/23

The Chicago Bears are down bad, and things are only projected to get worse.

The Bears are one of the only two winless teams in the NFL and will face off against the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football as the clear underdog.

Washington is not a dominant team by any means but has been better on both sides of the ball and gets this game at home. Here is a look at the betting odds, via BetMGM on October 3rd.

Spread: Commanders -6.5
Moneyline: Commanders -275; Bears +220
Over/Under: 44.5 points

Everyone is piling on the Bears these days, which makes it little surprise that the spread is almost a touchdown.

However, it seems like an overreaction, as the Commanders are not playing great ball on offense. Chicago should be able to stay close enough in this matchup to cover the spread, although the Bears will head back to the Windy City with an ugly 0-5 record and star draft prospect Caleb Williams increasingly in their sights.

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Betting Prediction

The Bears held a 28-7 third quarter lead over the Broncos last time out, but in true Bears fashion, blew it and lost by a field goal.

Third-year quarterback Justin Fields played his best game of the season, but now gets a much tougher test against a Washington defense that has some talented pass-rushers. 

The Bears will be without receiver Chase Claypool, who seems likely to be traded or cut soon, as his tenure in Chicago has been a disaster.

Much of this game may come down to the play of Washington quarterback Sam Howell, who has been up and down this season but is coming off a solid performance last time out against the Eagles.

While the Bears have taken their lumps publicly, in the end I expect them to be more competitive in this matchup than the oddsmakers have pegged it.

The difference in talent level between these teams isn’t as great as the spread would indicate.

Prediction: Commanders 24, Bears 20

Prop Bet Pick: Washington Commanders Under 25.5 Total Points

The Commanders are No. 21 in offense DVOA this season, and while it’s true the Bears’ defense has been awful this season, I don’t trust Howell to lead Washington to 26 or more points.

He has been sacked an NFL-high 24 times this season, and just one of those on a drive can end up stalling it.

Washington is averaging 22.3 points per game this season but only 4.8 yards per play. While this is an ideal matchup, the Commanders will make enough mistakes offensively to finish under 25.5 total points.

How To Watch Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

The Washington Commanders will host the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 5, 2023, at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. The game can be seen on Amazon Prime Video.