Week 1 MNF Predictions: Breece Hall, Stefon Diggs and Aaron Rodgers Prop Bet Picks for Bills-Jets 9/11/23

The first Monday Night Football game of the year is upon us, as the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in a titanic AFC East clash.

The Bills are small road favorites in a game that features two star quarterbacks but also a pair of great defenses.

Beyond the standard betting lines, here is a look at three prop bets for consideration heading into the contest. Odds courtesy of BetMGM, as of September 11.

New York Jets RB Breece Hall Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards (-120)

Hall has made a quick recovery from his torn ACL and is set to play in the opener. However, I have questions about his workload.

The Jets signed Dalvin Cook late in the offseason and he should be poised to get the majority of the carries. Hall is a talented running back who will play a big role for the team moving forward, but I feel like the Jets could choose to slow-play him early on as he tests out the knee.

The Bills have a good run defense and ripping off a run of 14-plus yards is no easy task even when a running back gets 15 or more carries. If Hall ends up in the 7-to-10 range, it’s going to be tough for him to break one for a big gain.

Hall may be able to play early in the year, but it still may take him several weeks to totally find his footing, which is why I’m fading him with this prop bet.

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

There is no question that Diggs is one of the better pass-catchers in the NFL, but he has to deal with ascending cornerback Sauce Gardner in this game.

Gardner looked like one of the best cover men in the league as a rookie and did a nice job against Diggs last year. The Jets would be smart to let Gardner follow Diggs around all game in order to limit his explosive plays.

Diggs averaged 89.3 receiving yards per game a season ago so it is understandable why the over could be a popular play, but I don’t think this game will have as many offensive fireworks as some expect.

Diggs will be targeted often and is going to come down with some catches, but I don’t think he surpasses 70 receiving yards.

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Rodgers is almost 40 years old and does not run like he did in the past, but there are a couple reasons why I like the over on this prop bet.

The first has to do with the Bills’ talented defense and Rodgers’ new team. Rodgers is still working to figure out chemistry with his teammates, which means the timing may not yet be perfect on passing plays. 

If Buffalo can get pressure and cover well, it’s going to force Rodgers to ad-lib. That may mean some scrambling, and all it could take is one or two runs to hit the over.

Another is the situation. Rodgers is revitalized in New York and will no doubt be geeked up for his debut with the Jets. It could lead to some extra hero ball, which is a good thing when it comes to his rushing total.

Rodgers had many games last year with under four yards rushing, and there is always the concern of late-game kneeldowns hurting the total, but I could see Rodgers using his legs in this one.

Prop Bets Record This Week: 5-1
Overall: 5-1