Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: Week 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds for Monday Night Football

The New York Jets needed a quarterback. Aaron Rodgers needed a fresh start.

One of the best signal-callers in NFL history made the momentous jump to the Big Apple this offseason, and now we get to see if it’s going to pay off.

The New York Jets will host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in a game that could feature two of the top Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.

The Jets had a great defense last season and now should be much better on offense, while the Bills have been a juggernaut for several years but have yet to get over the hump in the playoffs.

The oddsmakers have put some interesting betting lines on this MNF Week 1 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Odds courtesy of BetMGM, as of September 11:

Spread: Bills -1.5
Moneyline: Bills -130; Jets +110
Total: O/U 45.5

Cornerback Sauce Gardner and several other talented young players hope to keep the Jets among the upper echelon of NFL defenses in 2023, but this matchup is a challenge.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is on the short-list of preseason MVP candidates while Stefon Diggs is one of the best receivers in the league.

While the Jets should get better as the season goes along, don’t discount the continuity in place for Buffalo as it looks to start the season off with a big road victory.

Prop Bet Pick: Bills WR Stefon Diggs Under 70.5 Receiving Yards

The matchup between Stefon Diggs and Sauce Gardner figures to be a great one. Diggs is one of the best pass-catchers in the NFL while Gardner was already an elite cornerback as a rookie.

In two games last year against the Jets, Diggs had 93 receiving yards and then 37 receiving yards. However, Gardner only allowed three catches for 29 yards in the first matchup and one catch for six yards in the second.

It seems obvious for the Jets to use Gardner on Diggs as much as possible in order to lock him up. While the Allen-to-Diggs connection will get its chunk of yardage, I believe Gardner will win this matchup and keep the Buffalo star mostly in check.

Additionally, if the Bills lead this game late they will be more run-focused, which can help keep Diggs’ receiving total down. 

It’s never completely comfortable betting against a star, but Gardner is so good that he will compete at a high level throughout this matchup and help keep Diggs below 70.5 receiving yards.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Prediction

The Bills won’t have elite pass-rusher Von Miller available for this game but their defense is just as talented as the Jets. The secondary is elite, and while Aaron Rodgers has some solid weapons, it’s fair to wonder if the timing will be down so early in the year.

Rodgers excels when he has subtle chemistry with receivers, which was on display with former teammate Davante Adams, but Jets standout Garrett Wilson will still be learning the intricacies of Rodgers’ game at this point.

And even though the Jets have some real playmakers on defense, it’s hard to contain a quarterback like Allen, who can beat you in structure as well as make plays once forced to freelance.

Allen’s ability to run the ball and extend plays will be a big deal in this one. Look for both defenses to play well, but for Buffalo to make enough splash plays on offense to secure the crucial road win to begin the year.

Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 20

How to Watch Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

The New York Jets will host the Buffalo Bills on Monday, September 11th, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The “Monday Night Football’ Week 1 matchup can be seen on ESPN.