Top NFL Parlays for Week 13

Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season is here and there are plenty of compelling matchups on Sunday, including the Steelers vs Bengals, Chargers vs Falcons, Eagles vs Ravens and 49ers vs Bills on Sunday Night Football. Let’s take a look at our favorite three-leg parlay for Week 13. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions  

It could come as a surprise to some that the 8-3 Steelers are underdogs against the 4-7 Bengals in this pivotal AFC North matchup this weekend. However, for those following closely, one team has been fortunate (Pittsburgh) to come out on top in numerous one-score games this season, while the other team (Cincinnati) is just 1-6 in games decided by one possession. Regression is likely coming for both sides, and this matchup is a good place for that to finally take hold.

PICK #1: Bengals -2.5 over Steelers (-120) 

Even though it’s been a frustrating season in Cincinnati, Joe Burrow has still been magnificent, as the Bengals quarterback is in the midst of the best season of his career, tossing 27 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions on the season. The LSU product should see more success on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that is very quietly in the bottom 10 of the league in opponent EPA per rush and pressure rate over the past five weeks. 

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in both success rate and passing success rate since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback from Justin Fields. The buzz around Wilson has mostly been positive, but his mediocre performances have gone a bit under the radar in recent weeks due to the Steelers still picking up wins in games where he’s been far from perfect. That could all change this week against a Cincinnati team that is in a must-win situation at home.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons Picks

In terms of situational spots on the board this week, it doesn’t get much better than the Falcons. Atlanta was just embarrassed by the Broncos in Denver, and the Falcons were fortunate enough to get their bye week at the perfect time in order to reset and work out some of their issues on both sides of the ball. Conversely, the Chargers aren’t so lucky, having just played a pair of difficult games against the Bengals and Ravens in consecutive weeks.

PICK #2: Falcons ML over Chargers (+100) 

The Falcons were missing a number of key players in their secondary, and that certainly showed against Denver, as Bo Nix carved Atlanta up to the tune of 296 passing yards and nearly seven yards per play. The Chargers passing offense has been much better than anticipated this season, but the Falcons defense will have had a bye week to get healthier, while Los Angeles is making a cross-country road trip for this contest on a short week, having just played a physical game against Baltimore on Monday. 

Outside of the spot, the biggest reason for Atlanta to have success in this game has been the precipitous drop-off from the Chargers defense in recent weeks. We can expect Kirk Cousins to have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Drake London, Bijan Robinson and the rest of these dynamic Falcons weapons throughout this game. As long as the veteran quarterback is given time to throw, this offense should be extremely effective in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers best bets

How many non-playoff caliber teams are playing better than Carolina at the moment? Even if that’s a ridiculous question on its face, the fact of the matter is the Panthers are easily playing some of their best football of the season over the last three weeks. Carolina nearly pulled off the upset against the Chiefs at home a week ago, and Bryce Young and company are hosting the Buccaneers this week, who just demolished Tommy DeVito and the Giants a week ago.

PICK #3: Panthers +6 over Buccaneers (-110) 

Basic market fundamentals would tell you that this game is a bit mispriced, especially when factoring in recent performance for both teams and the level of competition that each side has faced. We just saw Tampa Bay listed as a six-point favorite against DeVito and the Giants last week. Therefore, this line suggests that the Panthers and Giants are about equal on a neutral field, which doesn’t line up with what we’ve seen on the field over the last month of the season.  

The argument for the Buccaneers is simple; Tampa Bay’s offense should see plenty of success against a Panthers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pressure rate and pass defense DVOA. With that said, Carolina should be able to put up points against a Tampa Bay secondary that has been extremely banged up throughout the season, and it shows in the numbers, as the Buccaneers are 31st in passing success rate allowed. It wouldn’t be a shock if this game devolves into a shootout, so we’ll gladly take six points with the home team in this NFC South duel.

NFL Week 13 Parlay: Bengals -2.5, Falcons ML and Panthers +6 (+600 odds)

The Bengals are ripe to knock off the overvalued Steelers, the Falcons are in a great situational spot, and the Panthers should stay hot at home. With that in mind, this three-team parlay has value at +600 odds. 

Read more:

• Best Sports Betting Sites
• NFL Player Prop Bets Week 13