NFL Betting Predictions: Odds, Picks Against the Spread for Week 9
We have hit the midway point of the season, and the contenders are beginning to separate themselves.
Will that help us with predictions? I hope so.
Here are my NFL betting picks against the spread for Week 9, starting with the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and Steelers. Odds courtesy of BetMGM on November 2nd.
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, November 2nd, 2023
Will Levis was fantastic in his NFL debut but I’m just not sure if he can duplicate that against the Steelers’ pass-rush, which gets Cameron Heyward back this week.
It’s not like I have much more faith in Kenny Pickett, but I think he can minimize the mistakes and let the defense get to work. I do like DeAndre Hopkins to have a solid game for Tennessee, surpassing his over/under of 53.5 receiving yards.
Score prediction: Steelers 20, Titans 16
Pick: Steelers -2.5
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Chiefs are one spot higher in Team DVOA, as they are top-5 in offense, defense and special teams this season. Miami has not answered the bell against elite teams this season but I like the Dolphins to finally pick up a signature win.
Kansas City has been quite good on defense this season but don’t think it has the horses to keep up with Miami.
Score prediction: Dolphins 30, Chiefs 23
Pick: Dolphins +1.5
Minnesota Vikings (+4) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Vikings would likely be favored in this game with Kirk Cousins, but now they will turn to either Jaren Hall or Josh Dobbs. The Falcons just got blitzed by Will Levis but neither of these quarterbacks have that type of talent.
Atlanta is turning to Taylor Heinicke and he should be able to help pick up this offense following the struggles of Desmond Ridder.
Score prediction: Falcons 24, Vikings 17
Pick: Falcons -4
Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
Cardinals rookie quarterback Clayton Tune against one of the best defenses in the NFL? Could be rough.
The Browns are likely going to counter with P.J. Walker, who isn’t very good, but it’s a great matchup against a bad Arizona defense.
If Cleveland can take control early on this one could go sideways fast. It’s a good opportunity for Tune to get some experience, but keeping this game close will be a challenge.
I like the Browns to cover to extend my record to 8-1 against the spread picking Cardinals games this year.
Score prediction: Browns 27, Cardinals 13
Pick: Browns -8.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Packers aren’t a good team but if Matthew Stafford doesn’t play, it takes away the Rams’ best shot at being competitive – an efficient passing attack.
My belief in Jordan Love is minimal; my belief in Brett Rypien is non-existent.
The Pack catch a break due to Stafford’s injury.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Rams 17
Pick: Packers -3.5
Washington Commanders (+3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Commanders just sent Montez Sweat and Chase Young away at the trade deadline, which is a huge blow to their defense.
Quarterback Sam Howell is coming off an impressive outing against the Eagles in which he threw four touchdown passes and was only sacked once.
I think the Washington offense leads the way in a road upset at +135 moneyline odds at BetMGM.
Score prediction: Commanders 23, Patriots 20
Pick: Commanders +3
Chicago Bears (+8.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent is going to be in for a tough matchup against the Saints, but I don’t know, man, this spread is giving the Saints a lot of credit.
The talent gulf between these teams isn’t that big and Montez Sweat is now added to the equation for Chicago.
If Bagent can avoid a meltdown, I like the Bears to cover.
Score prediction: Saints 19, Bears 13
Pick: Bears +8.5
Seattle Seahawks (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Ravens are low-key dominating on both sides of the ball, as they are No. 4 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive efficiency through Week 8. The Seahawks, though, are a legitimate Top-10 team in their own right.
I think this is going to be a very well-played game that comes down to the wire.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Seahawks 21
Pick: Seahawks +6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
Rough loss last week in Carolina but I still like the Texans’ body of work.
They are at home and I appreciate that a field goal margin results in a cover. These teams seem pretty evenly-matched but C.J. Stroud is already a superior quarterback to Baker Mayfield.
Score prediction: Texans 23, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Texans -2.5
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
Bryce Young had his best game as a professional last time out, and the game may be starting to slow down for him. The Colts’ offense has been surprisingly good this season but the defense has its issues.
I like Carolina to get a second straight upset win at home in this one.
Score prediction: Panthers 26, Colts 23
Pick: Panthers +2.5
New York Giants (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
I mean, yikes. What a matchup.
The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels this week and will now have interim head coach Antonio Pierce leading the way. They are flipping to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, which is a concern against a Giants defense that is finding its way.
Daniel Jones is back at quarterback for New York, and while the Giants might already be regretting that contract extension, he’s still serviceable.
New York is the upset pick against a Raiders team dealing with a lot of issues.
Score prediction: Giants 21, Raiders 17
Pick: Giants +1.5
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
The Cowboys got shellacked the last time they went on the road to face an NFC Super Bowl contender, but I don’t think that happens again.
The Eagles are 7-1 but a little something is missing, as they are only No. 9 overall in Team DVOA. The Cowboys are one spot higher and I think quarterback Dak Prescott can dissect coverages fast enough in this game to get the ball out before the Eagles pass-rush becomes a menace.
Upset time.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23
Pick: Cowboys +3
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 5th, 2023
It’s been a bit of a bumpy road for both of these teams, but the Bengals are playing some really good football now.
Cincinnati is at home and, frankly, I think they are the better team. Buffalo’s defense has had some issues lately and it won’t help to face a white-hot Joe Burrow.
Josh Allen will make some big plays but a crucial mistake could derail Buffalo.
Score prediction: Bengals 28, Bills 24
Pick: Bengals -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at New York Jets
Monday, November 6th, 2023
It’s strength against strength and weakness against weakness.
The Chargers have a top-10 offense but will face off against a stingy Jets defense, while Zach Wilson and Co. need to get something going for New York against a Los Angeles group prone to giving up yards.
When the quarterback disparity is this big, I cannot in good faith roll with the Jets.
Score prediction: Chargers 24, Jets 17
Pick: Chargers -3.5
Last Week: 7-7-2
Overall Record: 63-54-2
