NFL Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks Against the Spread for Week 12

Three games on Thanksgiving, a Black Friday matchup, a nice slate on Sunday and Monday Night Football to finish it off.

What a week.

Here are my NFL picks against the spread, and I also whipped up a Thanksgiving Day Parlay that you can check out. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Detroit Lions

Thursday, November 23rd, 2023

The Lions have a very good team but I like what I’ve seen from Jordan Love the past couple weeks.

The Packers have played most teams close this season and I think they have a better showing than in the 34-20 loss to Detroit earlier this year.

Score prediction: Lions 27, Packers 24
Pick: Packers +7.5

Washington Commanders (+12.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Thursday, November 23rd, 2023

Dak Prescott is quietly having a very good season and CeeDee Lamb has taken the step to superstardom.

I don’t think the Commanders have much of a chance to keep this one close because Sam Howell gets sacked all the time, and the Cowboys are great at pressuring the quarterback.

Score prediction: Cowboys 34, Commanders 17
Pick: Cowboys -12.5

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Seattle Seahawks

Thursday, November 23rd, 2023

Geno Smith is probably going to play for the Seahawks, and while he’s been up and down this year, that’s obviously a big deal.

Seattle is a good team at home, so while I do like the 49ers to grab this win, I think it will be close.

Score prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 21
Pick: Seahawks +7

Miami Dolphins (-10) at New York Jets

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

Yay, the Jets finally benched Zach Wilson! For, uh, Tim Boyle?

This is going to get ugly. 

Score prediction: Dolphins 28, Jets 13
Pick: Dolphins -10

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

Every single NFC South game feels like a toss-up, doesn’t it?

The Saints are quite a bit better by Team DVOA and have the quarterback advantage, so I’ll roll with them over the home team.

But honestly I have no confidence in this pick. This division is the worst.

Score prediction: Saints 20, Falcons 17
Pick: Saints -1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

A team with no starting quarterback visits a team with no starting quarterback. 

Get it? Kenny Pickett slander? Anyway.

The Steelers do have the superior defense and I think they will make life tough on Jake Browning and grab the road win.

Score prediction: Steelers 19, Bengals 16
Pick: Steelers -1

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

The Titans have been pretty bad lately, as Will Levis has cooled off considerably after a great debut.

On the other hand, Bryce Young has been bad all year.

Tennessee has the better overall team but this spread is too enticing to me. I’ll take the Panthers to cover.

Score prediction: Titans 24, Panthers 21
Pick: Panthers +3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

The Colts’ offense has cratered a bit the past couple of games and this is a tough matchup against a good Tampa Bay defense.

I like the Bucs to go on the road and pull a small upset at +115 on the moneyline.

Score prediction: Buccaneers 20, Colts 17
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

New England Patriots (-3) at New York Giants

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

Tommy DeVito was low-key awesome against the Commanders but he was also sacked nine times. The Patriots have a good defense and should be able to force him into some mistakes.

New England is a bad team but the Giants are worse.

Score prediction: Patriots 23, Giants 14
Pick: Patriots -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

I’m in on the Texans, man, and a win here would bolster C.J. Stroud’s surprising entrance into the MVP race.

Houston has already blown away expectations, and a victory here would tie it with the Jaguars atop the AFC South. Houston is +105 on the moneyline at BetMGM.

Score prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 21
Pick: Texans +1.5

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

This is a tough one. The Browns have a quarterback problem, but the defense is elite.

Russell Wilson has been decent this year but he has a tendency to get sacked a lot, and I think that is going to derail a lot of Denver drives.

The Browns are the pick in a small upset.

Score prediction: Browns 17, Broncos 16
Pick: Browns +1.5

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

I’m up to 10-1 against the spread on Cardinals games this season after the Texans covered by a whisker on Sunday.

The Cardinals are the slight underdogs here but I like them to win the game. The offense has shown some potency since the return of Kyler Murray, while Rams wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both got banged up against the Seahawks.

I think the Arizona offense moves the ball well, leading the way to the victory. The moneyline odds sit at an even -110 via BetMGM.

Score prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 24
Pick: Cardinals +1

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

The Kansas City defense did a nice job last week against Jalen Hurts, and now Aidan O’Connell is the opposing quarterback.

The Chiefs will likely dominate on that side of the ball, and this is a good matchup for the offense to get back on track.

Score prediction: Chiefs 33, Raiders 20
Pick: Chiefs -9

Buffalo Bills (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

The Eagles picked up a nice road win over the Chiefs last week but the underlying numbers are still a bit concerning. 

Philadelphia has overachieved this season while the Bills have underachieved, and I think we’re due for a course correction in this one. Buffalo moneyline is +145, and I like that value.

Score prediction: Bills 28, Eagles 24
Pick: Bills +3

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, November 26th, 2023

Chargers coach Brandon Staley is under fire, and deservedly so, as the defense has really struggled this season.

This is a really tough matchup and Lamar Jackson could very well go off, but I trust Justin Herbert to keep things close.

Yes, I’m rolling with Los Angeles to cover again, which has heretofore been an absolutely awful choice.

Score prediction: Ravens 30, Chargers 27 
Pick: Chargers +3.5

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Monday, November 27th, 2023

These quarterbacks are very similar in play-style, though the paths to starting jobs have been much different for Justin Fields and Joshua Dobbs.

The Bears looked pretty good last week and I’m happy to take them to cover this spread in case this ends up a field goal margin.

Score prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 21
Pick: Bears +3.5

Last Week: 8-6
Overall Record: 85-73-3