NFL Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks Against the Spread for Week 11
Let's just ignore the fact that I’ve been finishing right around .500 every week for a month, and highlight this: I’m 9-1 against the spread on Cardinals games this season.
Scroll down for my Arizona pick this week, while perusing the rest if you like perfectly mediocre betting picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Thursday, November 16th, 2023
The Ravens blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead last week but this is a great team. Baltimore is No. 1 in Team DVOA and should dominate on the ground against the Bengals.
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are always scary but I think the Ravens’ defense will hold up, even with the expected absence of star cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 20
Pick: Ravens -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The Steelers have famously been outgained in every game this season yet sit at 6-3.
And now they get a matchup against a Browns team without quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is done for the year with a shoulder injury.
I think the magic ends here, as Cleveland’s defense gives Kenny Pickett the business.
Score prediction: Browns 17, Steelers 10
Pick: Browns -1
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
Justin Fields is back, and yes, while the Lions are playing some really good ball on offense, I’m riding with Chicago here because of that extra half point on the spread.
I know this is exactly what the oddsmakers want me to do, but I can’t help it. Chicago keeps this one within a score.
Score prediction: Lions 27, Bears 20
Pick: Bears +7.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The gulf between these quarterbacks is very, very, very, very wide.
I know the Chargers’ defense just got roughed up by the Lions, but Green Bay is not nearly as explosive. Los Angeles should win comfortably on the road.
Score prediction: Chargers 24, Packers 16
Pick: Chargers -3
Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The Raiders have scratched back to .500 on the season but they aren’t getting any respect from the oddsmakers.
Nor should they. Good luck keeping pace with this offense behind a rookie quarterback. Fins roll.
Score prediction: Dolphins 35, Raiders 17
Pick: Dolphins -13.5
New York Giants (+9.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
You know a team is down bad when it’s nearly a double-digit underdog to the Commanders.
New York has been absolutely awful of late as it is down to a third-string quarterback, but I think the defense will keep it in this one. The Commanders win an ugly one.
Score prediction: Commanders 21, Giants 13
Pick: Giants +9.5
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The Cowboys are rolling right now but a 10-point road favorite against a bad-but-not-abominably-bad foe makes me nervous.
Dallas has blown the doors off some opponents this year but I think Carolina will put together a conservative game plan that keeps it close enough to cover.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Panthers 17
Pick: Panthers +10.5
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The advanced numbers don’t necessarily support a breakout from the Jaguars in this game but I think Trevor Lawrence gets things straightened out.
Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis struggled last week and this is a tough matchup against a good Jacksonville defense.
Score prediction: Jaguars 30, Titans 17
Pick: Jaguars -6.5
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The heat is on to keep my sizzling record intact. The Cardinals’ offense looked about 487% better last week with Kyler Murray at the reins, and I expect him to keep playing well the rest of the way.
But the defense is the issue in this game. C.J. Stroud is playing so well as a rookie that he’s creeping into the MVP conversation, and the Cardinals are No. 31 in DVOA on defense this year.
Now, the pass defense has gotten better lately with the return of star safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson, along with the ascension of rookie cornerback Garrett Williams.
But there are still major issues at outside cornerback, and while the pass-rush is starting to improve, it’s still inconsistent. The Texans are the pick to win and cover.
Score prediction: Texans 30, Cardinals 24
Pick: Texans -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
The Buccaneers are much less talented than San Francisco, but I think this is a good matchup. Coach Todd Bowles is very good at slowing down opposing run games and if Tampa Bay can keep the 49ers in check, it gives the secondary a chance at making plays against Brock Purdy.
The Buccaneers are too poor on offense to expect the upset but they should cover.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 18
Pick: Buccaneers +11.5
New York Jets (+7) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
Lots of focus on the Bills this week. I’m with the advanced stats crowd which thinks this has been a fluky showing for the Buffalo offense.
Yes, the Bills keep failing to cover the spread, but I’m riding with them again.
Score prediction: Bills 28, Jets 17
Pick: Bills -7
Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
Interesting game here as Matthew Stafford returns from a thumb injury, as the Rams’ fortunes are almost completely tied to him.
Seattle has the cornerbacks to keep Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua from dominating, while the offense should find success against the Rams’ questionable defense.
Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Rams 20
Pick: Seahawks -1
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 20th, 2023
Are we getting to the Joshua Dobbs implosion game yet? Denver’s defense is ranked last by efficiency but has looked much better in recent weeks.
Minnesota has the better all-around team but I think Denver gets the job done at home behind a solid performance from Russell Wilson.
Score prediction: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, November 21st, 2023
Fun way to cap the week!
Neither of these teams are playing at the same level they were last year, but the talent on both sides is fantastic and it should be a great matchup.
The Chiefs defense has been fantastic this season but it is allowing 4.5 yards per carry and I could see Philly dominating there and playing off it with the passing attack.
On the other side, it all comes down to how much pressure the Eagles can get on Mahomes. I’ll take Philly in the mini-upset.
Score prediction: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21
Pick: Eagles +2.5
- Last Week: 7-6-1
- Overall Record: 77-67-3
