Ask Odegard: Should the Cardinals Trade Budda Baker?

I thought there might be a dearth of questions this week, but nope, even in the offseason you guys bring the heat.

There is more buzz than expected about Budda Baker’s future with the Cardinals, so I’ll lead off the mailbag with my thoughts.

“Why haven’t they traded Budda yet?” – PRETTYMAMl_

“Will budda be traded? I cant stand to see him in a cardinals uniform much longer…” – weter

“Kyle, do you predict Budda being on the 2024 roster?” – Avi Soep

Kyle Odegard: Based on the timeline of their rebuild, I thought it made a lot of sense to trade Budda Baker after he requested it last offseason. So much so that I wrote as much. 

The Cardinals would have gotten draft capital along with cap savings that they could have re-allocated toward premium positions.

But Monti Ossenfort instead gave Baker a raise, and under that prism, I’d be hard-pressed to see them trading the Pro Bowl safety this offseason. 

The Cardinals knew they weren’t going to compete in 2023, and jettisoned guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons because they weren’t consider long-term pieces.

But the Cardinals paid Baker a lot of money last season instead of dealing him, and now that they are expected to be more competitive in 2024, it would be quite the about-face to trade him.

A trade this offseason would save $14.2 million against the cap and add draft capital – albeit less than last year since his value is not as high – so it would make some sense on its face, but the Cardinals knew the numbers last year and didn’t pull the trigger, so that’s why I think he remains on the team in 2024.

One caveat: Baker is going into the final year of his deal, and I don’t think the Cardinals will have much interest in extending him at top-of-the-market terms. 

Baker made another Pro Bowl in 2023, but it was undeserving, as he missed five games and didn’t have a sack, interception, forced fumble, fumble recovery or a pass defensed on the year.

If he makes a ton of noise this offseason and things get chippy, maybe then he will get dealt. But if all is quiet on the home front, my expectation is one more year in Arizona.

“Should Trey have made the pro bowl instead of Jake Ferguson?” – Anthony Doan

KO: Absolutely. Not even a debate. 

McBride had more catches, more receiving yards, a better catch percentage and more yards per target, all with Joshua Dobbs throwing to him half the year. Ferguson had a couple more touchdown receptions, but that’s the only – flimsy – argument for his placement.

And McBride was oddly stuck behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart for the first five weeks of the season, which cut into his production. With the way he played down the stretch, McBride looks like a perennial Pro Bowl tight end, but this year should have been his first berth.

“We need to cut Hump to free up cap space thoughts?” – WILSHIRE

KO: I wrote about this at the time of his ACL tear, and yes, I believe it is exceedingly likely he is released this offseason. It doesn’t make any sense to keep Humphries on that contract knowing he will miss a big chunk of next season.

“Do you see the cardinals upgrading the red uniforms in the future?” – applejack10

KO: We’re talking about uniform upgrades already? 

“Who do you think the Cardinals will target in FA first and the most” – Klutch Kyler

KO: The franchise tags will have to be sorted first to give us clarity. I feel like it will definitely be defense, but there are enough good cornerbacks, defensive tackles and edge rushers potentially available that I could see Monti Ossenfort targeting any of those positions.

“Ahead of the draft, and now in the first year of Ossenfort and Sears' own scouts and scouting system, what possible changes could there be in the players we target compared to Keim drafts, and the way in which they're identified? (More analytical or interview led e.g)” – Finn

KO: Ossenfort and Sears went offensive tackle, edge rusher, wide receiver and cornerback with their first four draft picks, and that in itself is an indication that they are much more analytically-minded than Keim, who famously took inside linebackers several times in the first round.

Those who have been around know I’m an analytics guy, so I’m much more optimistic about the new regime’s ability to draft impact talent. Steve Keim had some good picks, of course, but the process seemed flawed, and I’m pretty confident that Ossenfort and Sears will have a more structurally sound basis for their picks.

“Which players that this week are being coached by the various Cardinals coaches across the Shrine and Senior Bowl could be of consideration for AZ this draft?” – Finn

KO: The most intriguing match is assistant offensive line coach Chris Cook with the offensive linemen of the National Team at the Senior Bowl. Those include first-round prospects like Taliese Fuaga and Jordan Morgan.

The level of intel they get from coaching these guys for a few days is not going to blow other teams away, but it does help understand personalities, coachability and other things better.

In the end it’s not the biggest deal, but it doesn’t hurt. 

“What's a sports stadium you haven't been to that you'd say you have on your bucket list? I NEED to experience Lambeau Field, Rose Bowl Stadium and Michigan Stadium personally” – Caleb Anderson

KO: I’ve probably been to all of the NFL stadiums, and quite a few MLB parks. One thing I haven’t done is attend a college football game in a great atmosphere. I think my preference would be at LSU for a game against Alabama. And then a World Cup or Premier League game would be pretty great as well.

You didn’t ask, but these are my three favorite stadiums, based on atmosphere and aesthetic: Wrigley Field, U.S. Bank Stadium (Vikings) and Lumen Field (Seahawks).

“Based on projected available cap, how many impact players do you see us being able to sign in free agency? What would an ideal (realistic) FA scenario look like?” – Sean

KO: You can definitely get a top dog, or even two, depending on how aggressive the front office would like to be this offseason. After that it would be more about filling in holes with serviceable players, particularly on defense. 

My guess: One elite player among DL and CB, one good player at  DL or CB, a serviceable left guard, a serviceable defensive lineman and a below-average right tackle that eventually gets bumped by a rookie draft pick. Wide receiver is tricky but the Cardinals may have enough intel by free agency to know whether or not Marvin Harrison Jr. will be available at 4.

“Edge or DT? The million dollar question on what to spend big on 1st? And how many trades if any does Monti make draft day?” – Mando1121

KO: I agree with Kyle Vanden Bosch that a dynamic interior defensive tackle can bring tremendous value to a defense. Aaron Donald can wreck games by himself, as Cardinals fans know all too well.

So if Justin Madubuike or Christian Wilkins hits the open market, I could see a push for one of them. But there are also a lot of intriguing edge rushers that are impending free agents, so it’s simply a matter of best fit for the price. Both are very premium positions.

I think Monti will definitely make some trades on draft day, but even he has no idea at this point how many that will be. For fun, I’ll guess three.

“Do you trade to #3 if MHJ isn't going to be available?” – Justin Crawford

KO: I still don’t think so. If it costs something like a fourth-round pick, then sure, but if it’s more than that, I’d stay at 4. If MHJ goes 3, someone might want to come up for Jayden Daniels.

Or you could draft Malik Nabers. Or Rome Odunze, who got the Larry Fitzgerald comp from Daniel Jeremiah. Or take an offensive tackle. 

“Can the Cards save some of their cap space now then go over the cap the next offseason (I think the Jags did that a while back when they signed Calais)? With so many needs plus changes in front office/coaching/personnel should they spend big this offseason?” – Steve Marks

KO: You can roll over cap space, but I think the Cardinals looked good enough down the stretch to be aggressive this offseason.

The offense played like a top-10 unit once Kyler Murray returned and Arizona was quite competitive with him under center.

Two-year rebuilds are a tough sell, and considering the draft capital the team also has, I think they should, and they will, spend in free agency.

“Are we owning the nfc west next year” – Hector Madrini

KO: No.

“What is the status on QB2 for next year? Will the Cardinals stick with developing Tune, add someone in the draft or is there a veteran that not only could take over if need be, but also strengthen the room in general? What would AZ be willing to spend on that?” – Rob Langeland

KO: PFF put the Cardinals down as a potential landing spot for Jameis Winston, and that’s an interesting decision. Are they far enough along to pay decent coin for a backup quarterback?

On one hand, the guy is going to get several million dollars and isn’t guaranteed to play a snap. On the other, the season is torpedoed if Kyler is out for five weeks because Clayton Tune is not ready to be a backup.

I definitely think they will add a veteran backup, but I’m interested to see the philosophy: grab someone cheap and hope for good Kyler health, or choose a pricey backup as insurance?

“Can I please order a Marvin Harrison jersey yet? I will be gutted if this doesn’t become a thing…” – Rory DeBlieck

KO: I think there is a 60% chance he is available at 4. So maybe order 60% of the jersey?

“May have already been asked, but at what position would you prioritize Free Agent money being spent? Take a big swing at top CB or DT, or instead target mid level, potential upside guys?” – Eric Bjorkman

KO: I’d take the big swing if it’s a proven performer who is 25 or 26 years old, considering they didn’t do that at all last offseason. Impact talent is integral in the NFL, and the Cardinals have the cap space to be a player. And yeah, cornerback, defensive tackle or edge would be the targets.

“4 years of college is a long time , how do I stay in the reporter loop during that time?” – CardinalCharles71

KO: Not to burst your bubble, Charles, but it’s a grind to reach the status of an NFL reporter. I covered myriad track meets, swim meets, badminton matches, etc. in my teenage years and 20s. 

My advice would be to hone your craft when it comes to writing and reporting. If you become good at the job, opportunities will present themselves.

“Last season after he was hired, Monti said that they were going to use the old system for scouting, but this season would begin Monti’s new system. Do we know what this new system entails, and have we seen any personnel changes or anything that might shed some light on that?” – Jason Cabrera

KO: I honestly had no clue about this, but my interest is piqued. I’ll say this: Whatever Dave Sears did in Detroit, the Cardinals should copy that process, because those draft classes have been fire.

“I seem to remember good news coming out of camp and 1st few preseason games concerning rookie Jon Gaines before he went on IR. 2 questions. Where was he getting most of his snaps, G or C? Are the coaches still high on him?” – Joe Shmo

KO: I believe they tried him at center, and I imagine that’s where he will practice this offseason, since Hjalte Froholdt is on the final year of his contract.

I believe it was a torn ACL for Gaines, so hopefully he can bounce back from it. He has been lost in the shuffle when discussing the rookie class, but there is still potential for him to become a starter.

“What will be considered a successful season for this team next season? Is it "x" amount of wins? Is it a playoff appearance? Appreciate the insight!” – Grattz

KO: Some of it will depend on the level of aggressiveness in free agency. Are the Cardinals going to be prudent and only sign guys to value deals, or will they overpay in order to expedite a return to relevancy?

Ossenfort has been around for just one season, but owner Michael Bidwill has presided over a team that has won only eight games combined over the past two years, and he may be getting antsy.

In all honesty, I think the hype is going to build as this offseason moves along, to where anything less than a playoff berth in 2024 will feel like a disappointment.

"What are we going to ask during an off-season with no uniform controversy??? That being said, do you think they’ll wear white pants with the red jerseys next year? – Chris

KO: Haha, I wondered if there would be enough questions, but here we are, still going strong. As for the uniform combination, I hope so. The all-white road uniforms are great, but I don’t love the all-red. The red-white combo at home would look good.

“Any interest in FA Chris Jones?” – Ann Webb

KO: I think he makes a lot more sense for a contender. He will be 30 this offseason and is going to break the bank. Not sure if that lines up with the Cardinals’ timeline.

“Hi Kyle, Who are your top 3 not returning and top 3 must re-sign players for next season?” – AZCardsAndrea

KO: The Cardinals really don’t have any free agents of note beyond Hollywood Brown. So these lists will be underwhelming, but the show must go on.

Top three notables I wouldn’t bring back: Antonio Hamilton, Elijah Wilkinson, Jonathan Ledbetter.

Top three notables to re-sign: Hollywood Brown, Krys Barnes, Leki Fotu.

“Do the cardinals actually want to improve their facilities and everything because it looks worse then some high school facilities?” – Ozzie

KO: I think they are taking steps, but they are baby steps. There is no doubt they lag behind the vast majority of the NFL when it comes to amenities, which doesn’t make much sense because it is not governed by a salary cap.

“How do we feel about Johnny Wilson” - LJM

KO: His height scares me a little bit. I think back to guys like Hakeem Butler and Isaiah Simmons who didn’t have the same movement skills as the shorter guys with more burst.

I think whichever team that drafts him needs to have a very clear plan in place. He has a high ceiling, so it’s intriguing, but will he be able to separate at the NFL level?

"What is going on with the NFL investigation into harassment and cheating claims by Terry McDonough? It’s been very quiet. Any chance the Cards lose any draft picks this year?" -- greatscott172

KO: Good question. Maybe I'll poke around a bit this week and see if there is anything new. I think there is a chance they lose a pick, for sure, but not the first-rounder.