Ask Odegard: Are Wide Receivers Being Overvalued By Cardinals Fans?

The mailbag is back again. I don’t have anything witty to say in the intro, so let’s begin.

“Greetings Kyle! It’s been interesting to read and hear local media members fawn over MHJ and the wide receivers in this draft. But when looking at recent Super Bowl winners, none have had a top tier WR that they rely on to win. Should the focus really be on a tackle instead?” – Cyllis

“Why do Cardinals fans and media only care about WRs every single year when they have next to no impact on winning super bowls?” – John Matrix

Kyle Odegard: This debate has raged for several weeks in my Twitter mentions, and the mailbag is a good place to flesh out my thoughts.

To answer the Super Bowl thing first:  I do think they have made a recent impact, and I don’t think we should judge the efficacy of receivers based on championships anyway. 

Julio Jones played a huge role in getting the Falcons to the Super Bowl (and a 28-3 lead) before they blew that game against the Patriots. The Chiefs have been Super Bowl quality without Tyreek Hill but it’s definitely been more of a grind offensively compared to the juggernaut past.

In a vacuum, yes, an offensive tackle is more important than a star wide receiver. If my choice was between Trent Williams and Justin Jefferson, I would choose Williams.

But the consensus out there is that Marvin Harrison, Jr. is a tier above those offensive tackles as a prospect. So this is more about a player with an elite ceiling. I’d be making the same argument if the next Orlando Pace was in this draft.

I don’t think there is any magic elixir when it comes to team-building. You need a good quarterback and a roster full of game-changers, but those can be constructed in myriad ways.

The Cardinals need to find an offensive tackle this offseason, but I’m not passing on MHJ for Joe Alt.

“Do you think Kliff is going to learn from his mistakes here?” – AlphaCureMom

KO: I really like Kliff as a person so I feel kind of bad about this answer, but no, I don’t think so. 

The stuff Kingsbury ran in his first year with the Cardinals was fantastic. Innovative, lots of wrinkles, a scheme that immediately accentuated the strengths of a rookie quarterback.

But I did not see enough growth over the next three seasons. The Cardinals had a star quarterback on a rookie deal and still were never able to put together an elite offense beyond that early-season stretch in 2021.

Much of that was on Steve Keim, of course, but Arizona had enough talent to be at least above average, and the simplicity of the offense held it back.

Why won’t he learn from his mistakes? Because Kingsbury had a golden opportunity to revamp the offense heading into 2022 and it didn’t happen. Very little under center, similar routes and play-calling to the years prior.

I think Kliff wants players to fit his system rather than doing it the other way around, and I don’t think his system is intricate enough to work long-term in the NFL.

“What's a random piece of trivia you know?” – Donnie Druin

KO: The fastest possible checkmate in chess only takes two moves.

"What are the chances kliff wants to go with another dual threat qb and Washington selects Jayden daniels, leaving Drake maye available for the pats at 3?" – JT

KO: I think Drake Maye fits the Kingsbury offense pretty well, actually. It certainly feels like Jayden is in the mix, but I’d expect Maye to be the pick. 

"Forget the 4th pick, what is most likely at No. 27? Package it in a trade, offensive tackle, cornerback?" – Kyler Burd

KO: I’m really leaning offensive tackle at this point. There are a lot of intriguing names that could be available in that range.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Monti packaged it in a move-up if there is someone he’s particularly keen on, like with the Paris Johnson move a year ago.

"If MHJ is gone and Cards can’t trade who should they take?" – Hot Hands

"Worst case scenario: Maserati Marv goes to Pats at three. Nobody wants to move up to grab Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Who does Monti take at four?" – ___1_618___

KO: Joe Alt has been the answer, but it really feels like Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are seeing their stock rise while the offensive tackles are falling some.

I’ll still go with Alt, but as much as the fanbase wouldn’t like it, those secondary receivers could be in play. (I also think a trade-down is still very likely if Marv goes top-3).

"Would or should the Cardinals look at restructuring Kyler’s contract to free up more money for FA?" – Connor Langpap

KO: God question. I don’t think that’s necessary this offseason. They have plenty of money, and free-agent deals are usually back-loaded, so many of the new guys will have low cap hits this year.

If the Cardinals make a big jump this season, that could absolutely start to happen in subsequent years. Murray’s contract is getting more affordable by the day, and there is wiggle room to add space through it if and when that is needed.

"Likelihood in percentage that we leave the draft with one of , MHJ ,Nabers, Rome – CardinalCharles71

KO: 70%

KO: Had to keep this question in Twitter form for full effect. (It’s a Minion day.)

"Which big name free agency pickup would be most realistic?" – Jonathan

KO: I have mentioned Mike Evans a couple times and he is probably the biggest name possibility. But he was so good this season that he might still be at the top of the market despite turning 30.

If that’s the case, Hollywood Brown returning would probably be the biggest potential splash.

"Chances of us signing a big WR from free agency?" – Tino

KO: As it stands the betting markets have given the Cardinals a 64% chance to draft Marvin Harrison, Jr. Let’s use that as a barometer. 

Can Monti Ossenfort hold tight and count on MHJ coming to Arizona? I think he can. If it doesn’t happen, they will likely take a wideout at 27 or on Day 2. It would be underwhelming to go into the season without MHJ or a big-name addition, but I have a feeling defense is going to be the primary focus in free agency.

"MHJ or trade back....right?" – Rob

KO: Yeah, would make the most sense to me, especially because you figure someone would want to come up for Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. 

Maybe there is a clear-cut second prospect on the Cardinals’ board, but if they are grouped into a second tier behind MHJ, then you trade back, for sure.

"When can I watch Kyler Murray player football again" – ZogAZ

KO: You’ll see some scintillating OTA highlights in a few months.

“How far back and what kind of compensation would we be looking at for one of the QB needy teams to land the 3rd QB on the board?” – Mando1121

KO: I think last year’s trade down is a great guide. If someone is trying to come up from around 12, it’s going to take a haul that includes a future first.

But if it’s someone like the Giants at 6 or the Falcons at 8, I’m not convinced the Cardinals get a first. It’s possible since the demand for quarterbacks is high, but as you said, we are now talking about the third quarterback on the board.

I think Arizona should be open to all possibilities. If Minnesota, Las Vegas or Denver wants to be super aggressive from the 11-13 range, Ossenfort can reimagine last year’s trade and continue to stockpile assets.

MHJ is the pick if available, but things will get interesting if he goes in the top three.