Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua, Michael Wilson and Fourth Down Prop Bet Picks and Odds for Week 6

The Cardinals are 7-point road underdogs against the Rams on Sunday. 

Based on the way Matthew Stafford is throwing the ball, combined with the leaky Arizona defense, I’m predicting a win and a cover for Los Angeles.

The scoring could be high as neither defense has a ton of talent beyond Rams monster defensive tackle Aaron Donald. I’m going with 30-20 in favor of the Rams.

In addition to the standard lines, here are three prop bets for consideration. It was a rough Thursday night showing but it’s time to get back on the horse.

Prop Bet Pick: Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua Over/Under 66.5 Receiving Yards

Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup last week, but that did nothing to slow down the rookie fifth-round sensation.

Nacua had seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, and played every single offensive snap.

Nacua was targeted 11 times in that game and Stafford has thrown the ball his way a whopping 63 times in five games this season.

Kupp immediately returns to his No. 1 receiver status, but there are plenty of passes to go around. Nacua gets a great matchup against a poor Arizona cornerback group and should feast.

Prediction: Puka Nacua over 66.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop Bet Pick: Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson Over/Under 2.5 Receptions

It was an extremely quiet game for the third-round pick against the Bengals. Wilson was targeted only twice, both very late in the contest.

His one catch was spectacular, as Wilson held onto the ball despite getting rocked by a defender.

There are a few reasons why I’m optimistic about a rebound against the Rams. 

Wilson played 75% of the time against Cincinnati, and if his snaps continue to stay in that range he should get looks. Additionally, the Cardinals have a very questionable running back group now that James Conner is banged up and could go to the air if that part stalls out.

And then there is this: quarterback Joshua Dobbs admitted this week that waiting to target Wilson until so late in the game was a big mistake.

It will be on his mind in this one, and Wilson should bounce back with a solid performance that includes at least three receptions.

Prediction: Cardinals WR Michael Wilson over 2.5 receptions (-140 at DraftKings)

Prop Bet Pick: Will the Los Angeles Rams Convert a Fourth Down?

The Rams are 6-of-8 on fourth downs this season, and both their percentage and total conversions are tied for third in the NFL.

Is Los Angeles likely to convert on a fourth down against the Cardinals? Yes, especially considering the issues Arizona has been facing defensively.

However, these odds are so skewed that I really like the underdog play. The first five games is a small sample, and conversion figures can be especially random because teams face different downs and distances. 

I looked at the odds for the other 2023 fourth-down conversion leaders and the odds were stacked similarly, but I don’t think there is a ton of predictiveness in this stat. The Rams were among the league leaders in fourth-down conversions in 2022 but tied for third-fewest in 2021.

Coach Sean McVay is not exactly the most aggressive coach on fourth downs, and if the Rams are ahead, as expected, there won’t be as much need to push the envelope and attempt the conversions.

It’s possible there is only one or two such go-for-it scenarios in this game, and if the Cardinals can hold up, or if the Rams have a gaffe, there may not be a successful one.

At these long odds, I’m willing to take the risk.

Prediction: Rams Will Not Convert a Fourth Down (+600 odds at BetMGM)

• Prop Bets Record this week: 0-3
• Prop Bets Record Overall: 25-19