An NFL Mock Draft Based on Betting Favorites for Each Pick

We have finally made it to April, but the draft is still more than three weeks away.

So I figured it’s time for a spin-off mock draft. 

The premise here: I’m going to use betting odds to navigate my way through the first round, sending players to the teams the various sportsbooks envision them landing.

Let’s see how this turns out.

1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC

This is an easy one. Every sportsbook has Williams as the prohibitive favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick, with FanDuel as high as -8000 for it to happen.

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

Drake Maye was the favorite here for a long time. Daniels then passed him up, but now Maye is making a comeback. While it’s getting tighter, Daniels is still the -150 favorite at BetMGM to be the No. 2 overall pick.

3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Daniels and J.J. McCarthy could both be in play here, but as it stands, Maye is the slight favorite to be the No. 3 pick at the sportsbooks.

4. Minnesota Vikings (via Arizona Cardinals): QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

While Marvin Harrison, Jr. is still the odds-on favorite to go No. 4, McCarthy has -300 odds to be a top-5 pick over at DraftKings. This is his most likely landing spot, with his odds sitting at +175 to be the No. 4 pick. Harrison has -150 odds to be the fourth pick.

5. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., Ohio State

Malik Nabers has slightly better odds to be the No. 5 overall pick, but if Harrison is available, he will very likely be the choice. MHJ has -1200 odds to be a top-5 selection and -500 odds to be the first non–quarterback chosen.

6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU

The draft settles down again here. The Giants have a huge need at wide receiver, and thus all the books have Nabers as the favorite. He can be had at +160 odds at FanDuel.

7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

While there is a lot of uncertainty within the top-5, if the board falls as predicted, Alt seems quite likely to land in Tennessee. He is the odds-on favorite to get there with -120 odds, per BetMGM. Alt is also the -250 favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Turner is the favorite to be the eighth pick at +140 odds at BetMGM, and he also has -200 odds to be the first defensive player taken.

9. Chicago Bears: WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Odunze has heavy -1600 odds to be a top-10 pick at DraftKings, and he hasn’t gone yet in this mock, so this is where we slot him in.

10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

The Jets have +125 odds to draft a tight end with their first pick at DraftKings and Bowers is favored to go to the Jets.

11. Arizona Cardinals: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

It starts getting tricky here, because of the trade and because the draft is now further out. 

We don’t have much from the sportsbooks to guide us on this pick, so we go with Mitchell, who would fill a position of need for Arizona and has the second-best odds at FanDuel to be the first defensive player picked at +400.

12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon

The Broncos are the odds-on favorites to draft Nix with -150 odds at DraftKings. Would they take him in the first round? If someone is enamored with a quarterback, it doesn’t make much sense to wait, so we pull the trigger here.

13. Las Vegas Raiders: OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

The Raiders are favored to take an offensive lineman with their first pick, at +140 odds over at FanDuel. Fuaga has the second-best odds to be the first lineman selected at +380, so we ship him to Vegas.

14. New Orleans Saints: OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State

The Saints are big-time favorites to draft an offensive lineman with their first pick, at -200 odds per DraftKings. Fashanu has the third-best odds to be the first linemen picked at +600.

15. Indianapolis Colts: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

The Colts have nearly even odds to draft a cornerback with their first selection at +110, per DraftKings. Arnold has +1600 odds to be the first defensive player chosen, which is second among cornerbacks behind Mitchell, so this pairing makes sense.

16. Seattle Seahawks: Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

The odds of Seattle drafting an offensive lineman or defensive lineman are very tight. While an OL is the slight favorite, Latu has +700 odds to be the first defensive player taken at DraftKings and is still on the board, so this constitutes value. 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

The Jaguars are odds-on favorites to draft a cornerback at DraftKings, and Wiggins has the third-best odds to be the first defensive player taken among cornerbacks at BetMGM.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: OT J.C. Latham, Alabama

The Bengals signed Trent Brown to a small, one-year deal to fortify their right tackle spot, but still need a long-term answer there. Latham has +1200 odds to be the first offensive lineman taken at BetMGM, which is the fourth-best in the group and lands him here with Cincinnati.

19. Los Angeles Rams: Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

Doing the mock draft this way hasn’t hurt too many prospects, but Verse definitely dropped the most, as many peg him as a top-12 pick. The Rams have -160 odds to take a defensive lineman, and while the interior is a priority after Aaron Donald’s retirement, Verse is a great value.

He has +950 odds to be the first defensive player selected at DraftKings, which is fourth-best among prospects.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

The Steelers have -200 odds to draft an offensive linemen first, per DraftKings, but the sportsbooks believe there is a drop-off at tackle following Latham. So we go with Powers-Johnson as the first interior lineman off the board.

21. Miami Dolphins: IOL Graham Barton, Duke

A run on interior linemen! The Dolphins have -155 odds to draft an OL first, per DraftKings. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

The Eagles need some help in the secondary, as they have -120 odds to add a cornerback first. DeJean is a flexible piece and has +1600 odds to be the first cornerback selected at DraftKings, which makes this a sensible pairing.

23. Arizona Cardinals: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas

Murphy has the fifth-best odds to be the first defensive player drafted at +1500, per DraftKings. He is still on the board because of team needs, and the Cardinals are able to snatch up a talented player at a position of need. 

24. Dallas Cowboys: T Troy Fautanu, Washington

The Cowboys have -170 odds to select an offensive lineman with their first pick, per FanDuel. Fautanu and Amarius Mims have identical odds to be the first OL taken at +4500, though Fautanu seems like a better pick for Dallas.

25. Green Bay Packers: T Amarius Mims, Georgia

Well there ya go. If Fautanu goes to Dallas, the Packers, who have -120 odds to take an offensive lineman first at DraftKings, can pencil in Mims.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State

The Bucs have +130 odds to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick. Robinson is a longshot at 100/1 odds to be the first defensive prospect selected, but that makes sense as we get to the end of the first round.

He would fit in well with Tampa Bay, which needs edge help and has a creative defensive mind in Todd Bowles as the head coach.

27. Arizona Cardinals: WR Brian Thomas, LSU

Thomas has 100/1 odds to be the first wideout selected via DraftKings, behind Harrison, Nabers and Odunze. He is generally mocked higher than this, but the betting markets had other ideas.

In this scenario, he drops to a Cardinals team that would giddily make this pick after trading away their chance to draft Marvin Harrison, Jr.

28. Buffalo Bills: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

The Bills are the favorites to draft the electric Worthy at +500, per FanDuel. This pairing makes a bunch of sense considering the hole at No. 2 receiver and Josh Allen’s big arm.

29. Detroit Lions: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

The Lions have +135 odds to draft a cornerback with their initial selection, per DraftKings, and McKinstry has the fifth-best odds to be the first cornerback taken at +2500.

30. Baltimore Ravens: G/T Jordan Morgan, Arizona

The Ravens have -210 odds to take an OL first, per DraftKings, and Morgan is tied for the seventh-best odds to be the first offensive lineman selected. Morgan can play tackle or guard, which makes him a sensible pick for Baltimore.

31. San Francisco 49ers: T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma 

The 49ers are pretty happy with the current tackle they have from Oklahoma. Guyton can join Trent Williams in San Fran, as the 49ers have -115 odds at DraftKings to make an offensive lineman their first pick.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

The Chiefs have +100 odds to take a wide receiver with their first pick, per FanDuel. Mitchell had 100/1 odds to be the first wideout taken, tied with prospects like Ladd McConkey and Troy Franklin in the second tier.