Texans vs. Chiefs Picks & Best Bets 21st Dec 2024: NFL Week 16 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs will meet the Houston Texans in NFL action on Saturday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET.
We performed 10,000 simulations of Saturday's NFL matchup using cutting-edge AI technology to highlight the best Texans vs. Chiefs bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Chiefs will likely win with a projected final score of 23-20.
To get the best value from these predictions, we continually monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Texans vs. Chiefs picks fuse the power of AI, statistics and analytics to produce NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Texans vs. Chiefs Game Information
- Game Date: Saturday, December 21st, 2024
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Spread: Texans +3.5 / Chiefs -3.5
- Moneyline: Texans +160 / Chiefs -185
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 42.5 Points (-112/-105)
Chiefs -3.5 @ +100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Texans and Chiefs have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Chiefs -3.5 due to DraftKings Sportsbook's more favorable odds of +100.
Total Points Over 42.5 @ -112 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 42.5, with DraftKings Sportsbook offering the best odds for the over at -112.
- Our analysis shows a 54% chance of the 42.5-point total going over, providing an edge of 1%.
Texans vs. Chiefs Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Houston Texans at +160 via BetMGM, whilst the Kansas City Chiefs are available at -185 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 63% chance of prevailing.
Even though the Chiefs are more likely to win, BetMGM offers +160 odds on the Texans moneyline, making it our recommended moneyline bet, as it represents the best value currently available.
Our Player Prop Picks for Texans vs. Chiefs
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Saturday's Texans vs. Chiefs game.
Houston Texans Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 72 yds | 53% |
| C.J. Stroud | 13 yds | 17% |
| Dameon Pierce | 7 yds | 4% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 87 yds | 41% |
| Tank Dell | 50 yds | 28% |
| Dalton Schultz | 39 yds | 26% |
C.J. Stroud Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud Over 230.5 Passing Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -110 |
- Our top prop bet for the Texans is for C.J. Stroud to record over 230.5 passing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 63.7%, providing an edge of 11.3% on the -110 odds offered by FanDuel.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 52 yds | 35% |
| Kareem Hunt | 26 yds | 29% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 18 yds | 14% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 65 yds | 30% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 52 yds | 31% |
| Xavier Worthy | 40 yds | 30% |
Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 Rushing Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | +100 |
- Our best prop bet for the Chiefs is for Patrick Mahomes to record over 7.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 74.3%, providing an edge of 24.3% on the +100 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Texans vs. Chiefs trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 5.5 Receiving Yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster has recorded more than 5.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 6 games (100% of the time). You can bet on him to go over 5.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Samaje Perine Over 9.5 Receiving Yards
Samaje Perine has had more than 9.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 appearances (90%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 9.5 receiving yards again at odds of -105 (51%), also available at Bet365.
Marquise Brown Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
Marquise Brown has had more than 17.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games (90%). You can bet on him to record over 17.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs to record Rushing Yards 7.5 rushing yards, with a projection of 18 rushing yards marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Chiefs -3.5 to cover.
In addition to our Texans vs. Chiefs predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds and insightful NFL predictions to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our best NFL bets tonight and dive into our NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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