Saints vs. Falcons Picks & Best Bets 29th Sep 2024: NFL Week 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Atlanta Falcons will face the New Orleans Saints in NFL action on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET.
We've run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using advanced AI technology to identify the best Saints vs. Falcons bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Falcons will likely defeat the Saints with a projected final score of 22-20.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we continuously monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Saints vs. Falcons Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Saints vs. Falcons picks fuse the power of AI, statistics and analytics to create NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Saints vs. Falcons Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2024
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Spread: Saints +2.5 / Falcons -2.5
- Moneyline: Saints +130 / Falcons -145
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 42.5 Points (-110/-108)
Saints +2.5 @ -105 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Saints and Falcons have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Saints +2.5 based on FanDuel Sportsbook's more favorable odds of -105.
Total Points Under 42.5 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 42.5, with DraftKings Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -108.
- Our analysis shows a slightly higher probability of the 42.5-point total staying under.
Saints vs. Falcons Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the New Orleans Saints at +130 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Atlanta Falcons are available at -145 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Falcons are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 59% chance of coming out on top.
Not only are they favored to win, but the Falcons also present the best betting value, with the odds of -145 available at BetMGM for an edge of 0.1%.
Our Player Prop Picks for Saints vs. Falcons
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Saints vs. Falcons matchup.
New Orleans Saints Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 66 yds | 50% |
| Jamaal Williams | 16 yds | 14% |
| Taysom Hill | 12 yds | 13% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 57 yds | 26% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 44 yds | 36% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 22 yds | 13% |
Taysom Hill Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill Under 18.5 Rushing Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -110 |
- Our top prop bet for the Saints is for Taysom Hill to record under 18.5 rushing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 79.7%, providing an edge of 27.3% on the -110 odds offered by FanDuel.
Atlanta Falcons Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 78 yds | 56% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 33 yds | 21% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 yds | 12% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 66 yds | 38% |
| Darnell Mooney | 46 yds | 29% |
| Kyle Pitts | 35 yds | 26% |
Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 Receptions (-140)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -140 |
- Our best prop bet for the Falcons is for Kyle Pitts to record under 3.5 receptions.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 72.4%, providing an edge of 14.1% on the -140 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Saints vs. Falcons Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have sourced the best Saints vs. Falcons trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Derek Carr has recorded more than 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 8 appearances (88% success rate). You can put money on him to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns again at odds of +200 (33% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Kirk Cousins Over 19.5 Passing Completions
Kirk Cousins has had more than 19.5 passing completions in 6 of his last 7 games (86%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 19.5 passing completions again at odds of -120 (55%), also available at Bet365.
A.T. Perry Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
A.T. Perry has had more than 28.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games (83%). You can bet on him to record over 28.5 receiving yards again at odds of -115 (53%), available at DraftKings.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Taysom Hill of the Saints to record Rushing Yards 18.5 rushing yards, with an edge of 27.3% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Saints +2.5 to cover.
Beyond our Saints vs. Falcons predictions, we offer extensive NFL betting tools. These include the latest NFL betting odds and insightful NFL expert picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the NFL best bets today and dive into Kyle Odegard's NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the top NFL betting sites.
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