Saints vs. Chiefs Picks & Best Bets 7th Oct 2024: NFL Week 5 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action on Monday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
We've performed 10,000 simulations of Monday's NFL matchup using cutting-edge AI technology to determine the best Saints vs. Chiefs bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Chiefs will likely defeat the Saints with a projected final score of 24-19.
To get the maximum value from these predictions, we continuously monitor the best odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Saints vs. Chiefs Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Saints vs. Chiefs picks fuse the power of AI, statistics and analytics to create NFL picks that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Saints vs. Chiefs Game Information
- Game Date: Monday, October 7th, 2024
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Spread: Saints +5.5 / Chiefs -5.5
- Moneyline: Saints +200 / Chiefs -218
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 43 Points (-110/-110)
Saints +5.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
- According to our simulations, the Saints have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the Chiefs have a probability of 46%.
- BetMGM offers odds of -110 for the Saints +5.5, presenting a favorable 1.8% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Over 43 @ -110 via BetMGM
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 43 at BetMGM, which offers the best odds for the over at -110.
- Our analysis shows a 53% chance that the total will go over 43 points, providing an edge of 0.4%.
Saints vs. Chiefs Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the New Orleans Saints at +200 via BetMGM, whilst the Kansas City Chiefs are available at -218 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 68% chance of victory.
Additionally, the Chiefs present the best betting value, with the odds of -218 available at DraftKings Sportsbook making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Saints vs. Chiefs
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Monday's Saints vs. Chiefs matchup.
New Orleans Saints Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Alvin Kamara | 67 yds | 48% |
Jamaal Williams | 18 yds | 17% |
Derek Carr | 7 yds | 11% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Chris Olave | 65 yds | 36% |
Rashid Shaheed | 44 yds | 38% |
Alvin Kamara | 25 yds | 48% |
Chris Olave Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+900)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Chris Olave Over 0.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +900 |
- Our top prop bet for the Saints is for Chris Olave to record over 0.5 rushing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 39.1%, providing an edge of 29.1% on the +900 odds offered by DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Kareem Hunt | 49 yds | 40% |
Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 20% |
Carson Steele | 17 yds | 14% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Travis Kelce | 60 yds | 41% |
Xavier Worthy | 46 yds | 31% |
Justin Watson | 32 yds | 18% |
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Rushing Yards (+110)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +110 |
- Our best prop bet for the Chiefs is for Xavier Worthy to record under 3.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 70.1%, giving us an edge of 22.5% on the +110 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Saints vs. Chiefs Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Saints vs. Chiefs trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Derek Carr has recorded more than 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 9 games (78% of the time). You can put money on him to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns again at odds of +205 (33% implied probability), available at FanDuel.
Juwan Johnson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
Juwan Johnson has had more than 19.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 appearances (83%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 19.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at Bet365.
Alvin Kamara Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
Alvin Kamara has had more than 66.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances (80%). You can bet on him to record over 66.5 rushing yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Chris Olave of the Saints to record Rushing Yards 0.5 rushing yards, with a projection of 5 rushing yards marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are betting on the Saints +5.5 to cover.
Beyond our Saints vs. Chiefs predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL betting odds and insightful NFL computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets tonight and dive into our NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the top NFL betting sites.