Patriots vs. Bills Picks & Best Bets 22nd Dec 2024: NFL Week 16 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends

The Buffalo Bills will go up against the New England Patriots in NFL action on Sunday at Highmark Stadium, beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET.
We've run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using innovative AI technology to highlight the best Patriots vs. Bills bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Bills will likely beat the Patriots with a projected final score of 30-17.
To get the best value from these predictions, we continuously source the best odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Patriots vs. Bills Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Patriots vs. Bills picks fuse the power of AI, stats and analytics to create NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Patriots vs. Bills Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, December 22nd, 2024
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium
- Spread: Patriots +14 / Bills -14
- Moneyline: Patriots +810 / Bills -1000
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 47.5 Points (-120/-102)
Patriots +14 @ -110 via BetMGM
- According to our simulations, the Patriots have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the Bills have a probability of 47%.
- BetMGM offers odds of -110 for the Patriots +14, providing a favorable 1% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Under 47.5 @ -102 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 47.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the under at -102.
- Our analysis indicates a 48% likelihood of the 47.5-point total staying under, which presents better value compared to betting on the over.
Patriots vs. Bills Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the New England Patriots at +810 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Buffalo Bills are available at -1000 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Bills are heavily favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them an 88% chance of victory.
Even though the Bills are more likely to win, FanDuel Sportsbook offers +810 odds on the Patriots moneyline, providing an edge of 1.3%. This makes it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Patriots vs. Bills
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Patriots vs. Bills game.
New England Patriots Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Rhamondre Stevenson | 55 yds | 35% |
Drake Maye | 26 yds | 20% |
Antonio Gibson | 12 yds | 12% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
DeMario Douglas | 45 yds | 20% |
Kendrick Bourne | 43 yds | 21% |
Hunter Henry | 41 yds | 24% |
Kayshon Boutte Over 2.5 Receptions (-108)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Kayshon Boutte Over 2.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -108 |
- Our top prop bet for the Patriots is for Kayshon Boutte to record over 2.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 62.1%, providing an edge of 10.1% on the -108 odds offered by FanDuel.
Buffalo Bills Prediction
Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
James Cook | 71 yds | 50% |
Josh Allen | 37 yds | 51% |
Ray Davis | 17 yds | 16% |
Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
---|---|---|
Khalil Shakir | 68 yds | 34% |
Amari Cooper | 48 yds | 25% |
Dalton Kincaid | 45 yds | 26% |
Ray Davis Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Ray Davis Under 26.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | -115 |
- Our best prop bet for the Bills is for Ray Davis to record under 26.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 82.9%, providing an edge of 29.5% on the -115 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Patriots vs. Bills trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Kendrick Bourne Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
Kendrick Bourne has recorded more than 19.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 5 appearances (100% of the time). You can put money on him to record 20+ receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Austin Hooper Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
Austin Hooper has had more than 21.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 5 appearances (100%). You can place a bet on him to record over 21.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), also available at Bet365.
Kayshon Boutte Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
Kayshon Boutte has had more than 26.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 10 appearances (70%). You can bet on him to record over 26.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Ray Davis of the Bills to record Rushing Yards 26.5 rushing yards, with an edge of 29.5% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're placing a bet on the Patriots +14 to cover.
In addition to our Patriots vs. Bills predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds and insightful NFL computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets today and dive into NFL sports journalists' insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.