Jaguars vs. Texans Picks & Best Bets 29th Sep 2024: NFL Week 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Houston Texans will meet the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL action on Sunday at NRG Stadium, starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
We performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using advanced AI technology to pinpoint the best Jaguars vs. Texans bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Texans will likely beat the Jaguars with a projected final score of 25-19.
To get the best value from these predictions, we continuously source the best odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Jaguars vs. Texans Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Jaguars vs. Texans picks combine the power of AI, stats and analytics to produce NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Jaguars vs. Texans Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2024
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- Spread: Jaguars +5.5 / Texans -5.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars +200 / Texans -238
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 44.5 Points (-110/-105)
Jaguars +5.5 @ -104 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Jaguars and Texans have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Jaguars +5.5 due to FanDuel Sportsbook's more favorable odds of -104.
Total Points Under 44.5 @ -105 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 44.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the under at -105.
- Our analysis indicates a slightly higher chance that the total will stay under 44.5 points.
Jaguars vs. Texans Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Jacksonville Jaguars at +200 via BetMGM, whilst the Houston Texans are available at -238 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Texans are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 70% chance of victory.
Not only are they favored to win, but the Texans also present the best betting value, with the odds of -238 available at DraftKings Sportsbook making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Jaguars vs. Texans
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Jaguars vs. Texans game.
Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 55 yds | 43% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 21 yds | 24% |
| Tank Bigsby | 15 yds | 23% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 57 yds | 33% |
| Gabe Davis | 47 yds | 30% |
| Brian Thomas | 45 yds | 29% |
Brenton Strange Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange Under 23.5 Receiving Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -110 |
- Our top prop bet for the Jaguars is for Brenton Strange to record under 23.5 receiving yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 81.5%, giving us an edge of 29.1% on the -110 odds offered by FanDuel.
Houston Texans Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 57 yds | 44% |
| Cam Akers | 26 yds | 23% |
| C.J. Stroud | 13 yds | 18% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 89 yds | 44% |
| Stefon Diggs | 59 yds | 40% |
| Dalton Schultz | 38 yds | 27% |
Nico Collins Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+750)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins Over 0.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +750 |
- Our best prop bet for the Texans is for Nico Collins to record over 0.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 40.2%, providing an edge of 28.4% on the +750 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Brenton Strange of the Jaguars to record Receiving Yards 23.5 receiving yards, with an edge of 29.1% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're placing a bet on the Jaguars +5.5 to cover.
In addition to our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds tonight and insightful NFL predictions for today to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our NFL best bets and dive into Kyle Odegard's NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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