Falcons vs. Broncos Picks & Best Bets 17th Nov 2024: NFL Week 11 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Denver Broncos will host the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High, starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
We've run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using innovative AI technology to highlight the best Falcons vs. Broncos bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Broncos will likely beat the Falcons with a projected final score of 22-21.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we constantly source the best odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Falcons vs. Broncos Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Falcons vs. Broncos picks combine the power of AI, data and analytics to create NFL picks that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Falcons vs. Broncos Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, November 17th, 2024
- Game Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High
- Spread: Falcons +2 / Broncos -2
- Moneyline: Falcons +114 / Broncos -130
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 44.5 Points (-108/-108)
Falcons +2 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, the Falcons have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the Broncos have a probability of 47%.
- DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds of -108 for the Falcons +2, presenting a favorable 1.6% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Under 44.5 @ -108 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 44.5, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -108.
- Our analysis indicates a 56% likelihood of the 44.5-point total staying under, providing an edge of 3.6%.
Falcons vs. Broncos Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Atlanta Falcons at +114 via DraftKings Sportsbook, whilst the Denver Broncos are available at -130 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Broncos are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 54% chance of prevailing.
Even though the Broncos are more likely to win, DraftKings Sportsbook offers +114 odds on the Falcons moneyline, making it our recommended moneyline bet, as it represents the best value currently available.
Our Player Prop Picks for Falcons vs. Broncos
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Falcons vs. Broncos game.
Atlanta Falcons Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 73 yds | 50% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 39 yds | 26% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 yds | 11% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 73 yds | 39% |
| Darnell Mooney | 52 yds | 30% |
| Kyle Pitts | 34 yds | 26% |
Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 Receptions (+105)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 Receptions | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +105 |
- Our top prop bet for the Falcons is for Kyle Pitts to record under 3.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 74.4%, giving us an edge of 25.6% on the +105 odds offered by DraftKings.
Denver Broncos Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Audric Estime | 46 yds | 36% |
| Javonte Williams | 23 yds | 22% |
| Bo Nix | 21 yds | 20% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 64 yds | 41% |
| Devaughn Vele | 37 yds | 27% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 32 yds | 19% |
Lucas Krull Over 1.5 Receptions (+116)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Krull Over 1.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | +116 |
- Our best prop bet for the Broncos is for Lucas Krull to record over 1.5 receptions.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 71.1%, giving us an edge of 24.8% on the +116 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Falcons vs. Broncos Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Falcons vs. Broncos trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Kyle Pitts Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts has recorded more than 42.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 appearances (83% of the time). You can wager on him to go over 42.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Bijan Robinson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson has had more than 63.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games (80%). You can place a wager on him to record over 63.5 rushing yards again at odds of -110 (52%), also available at Bet365.
Nate Adkins Over 1.5 Receiving Yards
Nate Adkins has had more than 1.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances (80%). You can bet on him to record over 1.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at DraftKings.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Kyle Pitts of the Falcons to record Receptions 3.5 receptions, with an edge of 25.6% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are placing a bet on the Falcons +2 to cover.
Beyond our Falcons vs. Broncos predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting tools. These include the latest NFL odds tonight and insightful NFL computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our best NFL bets and dive into Kyle Odegard's NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best online NFL betting sites.
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