Chiefs vs. Falcons Picks & Best Bets 22nd Sep 2024: NFL Week 3 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Atlanta Falcons will meet the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL action on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
We've performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using advanced AI technology to reveal the best Chiefs vs. Falcons bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Chiefs will likely win with a projected final score of 24-21.
To get the best value from these predictions, we constantly source the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Chiefs vs. Falcons Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Chiefs vs. Falcons picks fuse the power of AI, data and analytics to produce NFL picks that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, September 22nd, 2024
- Game Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Spread: Chiefs -3 / Falcons +3
- Moneyline: Chiefs -174 / Falcons +150
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 46.5 Points (-110/-105)
Falcons +3 @ +100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Chiefs and Falcons have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Falcons +3 due to DraftKings Sportsbook's more favorable odds of +100.
Total Points Under 46.5 @ -105 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 46.5, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -105.
- Our analysis indicates a 53% probability of the 46.5-point total staying under, providing an edge of 2%.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Kansas City Chiefs at -174 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Atlanta Falcons are available at +150 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 62% chance of coming out on top.
Not only are they favored to win, but the Chiefs also present the best betting value, with the odds of -174 available at FanDuel Sportsbook making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Chiefs vs. Falcons
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Chiefs vs. Falcons game.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Steele | 55 yds | 39% |
| Samaje Perine | 33 yds | 33% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 18% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 72 yds | 40% |
| Travis Kelce | 50 yds | 37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 42 yds | 31% |
Carson Steele Under 1.5 Receptions (-114)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Steele Under 1.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -114 |
- Our top prop bet for the Chiefs is for Carson Steele to record under 1.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 69.3%, providing an edge of 16.1% on the -114 odds offered by FanDuel.
Atlanta Falcons Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 81 yds | 55% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 33 yds | 22% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 yds | 12% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 66 yds | 37% |
| Darnell Mooney | 38 yds | 23% |
| Kyle Pitts | 38 yds | 27% |
Bijan Robinson Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson Under 4.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -130 |
- Our best prop bet for the Falcons is for Bijan Robinson to record under 4.5 receptions.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 73.8%, giving us an edge of 17.3% on the -130 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Chiefs vs. Falcons trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Rushing Attempts
Kirk Cousins has recorded more than 1.5 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 games (83% success rate). You can put money on him to go over 1.5 rushing attempts again at odds of +150 (40% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Tyler Allgeier Over 1.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Allgeier has had more than 1.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 appearances (83%). You can place a wager on him to record over 1.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), also available at Bet365.
Noah Gray Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Noah Gray has had more than 14.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games (80%). You can wager on him to record over 14.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Bijan Robinson of the Falcons to record Receptions 4.5 receptions, with an edge of 17.3% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are betting on the Falcons +3 to cover.
In addition to our Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions, we offer extensive NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds tonight and insightful NFL computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets tonight and dive into Kyle Odegard's NFL insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the top NFL betting sites.
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