Chiefs vs. Chargers Picks & Best Bets 29th Sep 2024: NFL Week 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL action on Sunday at SoFi Stadium, starting at 4:25 p.m. ET.
We've run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using innovative AI technology to pinpoint the best Chiefs vs. Chargers bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Chiefs will likely beat the Chargers with a projected final score of 23-17.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we constantly monitor the best odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Chiefs vs. Chargers picks fuse the power of AI, statistics and analytics to create NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2024
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- Spread: Chiefs -7 / Chargers +7
- Moneyline: Chiefs -310 / Chargers +280
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 41.5 Points (-104/-108)
Chiefs -7 @ -104 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Chiefs and Chargers have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Chiefs -7 based on FanDuel Sportsbook's more favorable odds of -104.
Total Points Under 41.5 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 41.5, with DraftKings Sportsbook offering the best odds for the under at -108.
- Our analysis indicates a 52% likelihood that the total will stay under 41.5 points.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Kansas City Chiefs at -310 via DraftKings Sportsbook, whilst the Los Angeles Chargers are available at +280 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Chiefs are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 76% chance of prevailing.
Additionally, the Chiefs present the best betting value, with the odds of -310 available at DraftKings Sportsbook, presenting an edge of 0.8%.
Our Player Prop Picks for Chiefs vs. Chargers
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Steele | 55 yds | 36% |
| Samaje Perine | 24 yds | 26% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 17% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 75 yds | 42% |
| Travis Kelce | 52 yds | 35% |
| Xavier Worthy | 39 yds | 26% |
Kareem Hunt Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt Under 14.5 Rushing Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -110 |
- Our top prop bet for the Chiefs is for Kareem Hunt to record under 14.5 rushing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 68.9%, providing an edge of 16.5% on the -110 odds offered by FanDuel.
Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 77 yds | 35% |
| Gus Edwards | 26 yds | 22% |
| Justin Herbert | 14 yds | 19% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 42 yds | 24% |
| Quentin Johnston | 33 yds | 19% |
| Joshua Palmer | 29 yds | 23% |
J.K. Dobbins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | -115 |
- Our best prop bet for the Chargers is for J.K. Dobbins to record over 57.5 rushing yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 68.2%, providing an edge of 14.7% on the -115 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Chiefs vs. Chargers trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Justin Watson Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Justin Watson has recorded more than 12.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 5 games (100% success rate). You can bet on him to go over 12.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Gus Edwards Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Gus Edwards has had more than 7.5 rushing attempts in 7 of his last 9 games (78%). You can place a wager on him to record over 7.5 rushing attempts again at odds of +108 (48%), available at FanDuel.
Will Dissly Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
Will Dissly has had more than 10.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances (80%). You can wager on him to record over 10.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Kareem Hunt of the Chiefs to record Rushing Yards 14.5 rushing yards, with an edge of 16.5% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Chiefs -7 to cover.
Beyond our Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds for today and insightful NFL predictions today to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets and dive into our NFL expert insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the top NFL betting sites.
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