Chiefs vs. Bills Picks & Best Bets 17th Nov 2024: NFL Week 11 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL action on Sunday at Highmark Stadium, beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET.
We have performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using cutting-edge AI technology to reveal the best Chiefs vs. Bills bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Bills will likely defeat the Chiefs with a projected final score of 24-21.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we continually source the most favorable odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Chiefs vs. Bills picks combine the power of AI, stats and analytics to create NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Chiefs vs. Bills Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, November 17th, 2024
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium
- Spread: Chiefs +2.5 / Bills -2.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs +130 / Bills -148
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 46.5 Points (-118/-104)
Chiefs +2.5 @ +100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, both the Chiefs and Bills have a 50% chance of covering the spread in this matchup.
- We prefer the Chiefs +2.5 because of DraftKings Sportsbook's more favorable odds of +100.
Total Points Under 46.5 @ -104 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 46.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the under at -104.
- Our analysis indicates a slightly higher probability that the total will stay under 46.5 points.
Chiefs vs. Bills Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Kansas City Chiefs at +130 via BetMGM, whilst the Buffalo Bills are available at -148 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Bills are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 59% chance of prevailing.
Not only are they favored to win, but the Bills also present the best betting value, with the odds of -148 available at DraftKings Sportsbook making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Chiefs vs. Bills
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills game.
Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 73 yds | 49% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20 yds | 15% |
| Carson Steele | 9 yds | 5% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 69 yds | 35% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 60 yds | 31% |
| Xavier Worthy | 33 yds | 20% |
Kareem Hunt Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt Under 15.5 Receiving Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | -105 |
- Our top prop bet for the Chiefs is for Kareem Hunt to record under 15.5 receiving yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 71.6%, giving us an edge of 20.4% on the -105 odds offered by DraftKings.
Buffalo Bills Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 71 yds | 46% |
| Josh Allen | 36 yds | 52% |
| Ray Davis | 17 yds | 17% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 67 yds | 34% |
| Amari Cooper | 58 yds | 36% |
| Mack Hollins | 35 yds | 22% |
Ty Johnson Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson Over 4.5 Receiving Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | -125 |
- Our best prop bet for the Bills is for Ty Johnson to record over 4.5 receiving yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 78.8%, giving us an edge of 23.3% on the -125 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have sourced the best Chiefs vs. Bills trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Noah Gray Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Noah Gray has recorded more than 16.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 appearances (83% success rate). You can bet on him to go over 16.5 receiving yards again at odds of -105 (51% implied probability), available at FanDuel.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen has had more than 1.5 passing touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 appearances (80%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 1.5 passing touchdowns again at odds of +108 (48%), also available at FanDuel.
Travis Kelce Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce has had more than 63.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games (83%). You can wager on him to record over 63.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Ty Johnson of the Bills to record Receiving Yards 4.5 receiving yards, with a projection of 19 receiving yards marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Chiefs +2.5 to cover.
Beyond our Chiefs vs. Bills predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting tools. These include the latest NFL betting odds and insightful NFL expert picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets and dive into our NFL expert insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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