Buccaneers vs. Falcons Picks & Best Bets 3rd Oct 2024: NFL Week 5 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Atlanta Falcons will meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL action on Thursday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
We conducted 10,000 simulations of Thursday's NFL matchup using advanced AI technology to pinpoint the best Buccaneers vs. Falcons bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Falcons will likely defeat the Buccaneers with a projected final score of 22-21.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we continually monitor the most favorable odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the highest payouts for the specified plays.
Our Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks combine the power of AI, stats and analytics to produce NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Game Information
- Game Date: Thursday, October 3rd, 2024
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Spread: Buccaneers +2.5 / Falcons -2.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +118 / Falcons -135
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 43.5 Points (-110/-110)
Buccaneers +2.5 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, the Buccaneers have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the Falcons have a probability of 42%.
- DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds of -108 for the Buccaneers +2.5, providing a favorable 6.3% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Over 43.5 @ -110 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 43.5, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering the best odds for the over at -110.
- Our analysis indicates a 52% chance of the 43.5-point total going over.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +118 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Atlanta Falcons are available at -135 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Falcons are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 57% chance of prevailing.
Additionally, the Falcons present the best betting value, with the odds of -135 available at BetMGM making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Thursday's Buccaneers vs. Falcons game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 44 yds | 34% |
| Rachaad White | 30 yds | 33% |
| Baker Mayfield | 13 yds | 20% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 63 yds | 40% |
| Mike Evans | 59 yds | 40% |
| Cade Otton | 41 yds | 25% |
Chris Godwin Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+450)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Over 0.5 Rushing Yards | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +450 |
- Our top prop bet for the Buccaneers is for Chris Godwin to record over 0.5 rushing yards.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 42.1%, giving us an edge of 23.9% on the +450 odds offered by DraftKings.
Atlanta Falcons Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 66 yds | 53% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 38 yds | 28% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 yds | 13% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 66 yds | 40% |
| Darnell Mooney | 47 yds | 30% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 34 yds | 29% |
Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions (+120)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions | DraftKings Sportsbook | Get Offer | +120 |
- Our best prop bet for the Falcons is for Bijan Robinson to record under 3.5 receptions.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 57.6%, providing an edge of 12.1% on the +120 odds offered by DraftKings.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Buccaneers vs. Falcons trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this matchup.
Bijan Robinson Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson has recorded more than 29.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 5 appearances (60% success rate). You can wager on him to go over 29.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52% implied probability), available at FanDuel.
Mike Evans Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Evans has had more than 59.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 5 games (60%). You can place a bet on him to record over 59.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at Bet365.
Baker Mayfield Over 11.5 Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield has had more than 11.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 6 games (67%). You can wager on him to record over 11.5 rushing yards again at odds of +100 (50%), again available at FanDuel.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Chris Godwin of the Buccaneers to record Rushing Yards 0.5 rushing yards, with a projection of 5 rushing yards marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're betting on the Buccaneers +2.5 to cover.
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