Bills vs. Texans Picks & Best Bets 6th Oct 2024: NFL Week 5 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Houston Texans will meet the Buffalo Bills in NFL action on Sunday at NRG Stadium, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET.
We conducted 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using state-of-the-art AI technology to identify the best Bills vs. Texans bets, player props and predictions.
According to our predictions, the Texans will likely beat the Bills with a projected final score of 24-23.
To maximize the value of predictions like this, we continuously source the most favorable odds for each market. This ensures that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Bills vs. Texans Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Bills vs. Texans picks combine the power of AI, data and analytics to produce NFL predictions that are free from the emotional biases often associated with human-made picks.
Bills vs. Texans Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, October 6th, 2024
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- Spread: Bills +1 / Texans -1
- Moneyline: Bills +106 / Texans -120
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 48 Points (-108/-112)
Texans -1 @ -110 via BetMGM
- According to our simulations, the Texans have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the Bills have a probability of 48%.
- BetMGM offers the best odds for this bet at -110.
Total Points Over 48 @ -108 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 48 at DraftKings Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the over at -108.
- Our analysis shows a slightly higher probability of the 48-point total going over.
Bills vs. Texans Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Buffalo Bills at +106 via FanDuel Sportsbook, whilst the Houston Texans are available at -120 with BetMGM.
According to the model, the Texans are favored to win this game, with our projections assigning them a 54% chance of prevailing.
Not only are they favored to win, but the Texans also present the best betting value, with the odds of -120 available at BetMGM making it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Bills vs. Texans
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Bills vs. Texans game.
Buffalo Bills Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 64 yds | 43% |
| Josh Allen | 35 yds | 47% |
| Ray Davis | 19 yds | 15% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 44 yds | 26% |
| Keon Coleman | 43 yds | 26% |
| Mack Hollins | 27 yds | 21% |
Curtis Samuel Under 3.5 Receptions (-140)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel Under 3.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -140 |
- Our top prop bet for the Bills is for Curtis Samuel to record under 3.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 85.9%, giving us an edge of 27.5% on the -140 odds offered by FanDuel.
Houston Texans Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 48 yds | 37% |
| J.J. Taylor | 14 yds | 13% |
| C.J. Stroud | 13 yds | 18% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 93 yds | 44% |
| Stefon Diggs | 58 yds | 37% |
| Tank Dell | 50 yds | 35% |
Cam Akers Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-122)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers Under 9.5 Receiving Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -122 |
- Our best prop bet for the Texans is for Cam Akers to record under 9.5 receiving yards.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 67.1%, giving us an edge of 12.1% on the -122 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Bills vs. Texans Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have compiled the best Bills vs. Texans trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Nico Collins Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins has recorded more than 77.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 appearances (88% success rate). You can put money on him to go over 77.5 receiving yards again at odds of -105 (51% implied probability), available at Bet365.
Dare Ogunbowale Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Dare Ogunbowale has had more than 12.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 appearances (80%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 12.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), also available at Bet365.
C.J. Stroud Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
C.J. Stroud has had more than 9.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 games (60%). You can bet on him to record over 9.5 rushing yards again at odds of -110 (52%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Curtis Samuel of the Bills to record Receptions 3.5 receptions, with an edge of 27.5% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we are placing a bet on the Texans -1 to cover.
Beyond our Bills vs. Texans predictions, we offer extensive NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds and insightful NFL computer picks to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with our best NFL bets and dive into our NFL expert insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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