Bills vs. Colts Picks & Best Bets 10th Nov 2024: NFL Week 10 Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props & Trends
The Indianapolis Colts will host the Buffalo Bills in NFL action on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
We run 10,000 simulations of Sunday's NFL matchup using innovative AI technology to highlight the best Bills vs. Colts bets, player props and predictions.
Our predictions show that the Bills will likely win with a projected final score of 25-21.
To get the best value from these predictions, we continuously monitor the best odds for each market. This means that the sportsbooks listed below are currently offering the biggest payouts for the plays identified.
Our Bills vs. Colts Betting Picks & Predictions
Today's Bills vs. Colts picks combine the power of AI, statistics and analytics to produce NFL picks that are free from the emotional biases typical of human-made picks.
Bills vs. Colts Game Information
- Game Date: Sunday, November 10th, 2024
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Spread: Bills -4.5 / Colts +4.5
- Moneyline: Bills -225 / Colts +190
- Scoring Total: Over/Under 46.5 Points (-112/-105)
Colts +4.5 @ -105 via DraftKings Sportsbook
- According to our simulations, the Colts have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the Bills have a probability of 46%.
- DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds of -105 for the Colts +4.5, presenting a favorable 2.6% edge for them to cover.
Total Points Under 46.5 @ -105 via FanDuel Sportsbook
- The over/under for total points scored is set at 46.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which offers the best odds for the under at -105.
- Our analysis suggests a slightly higher chance that the total will stay under 46.5 points.
Bills vs. Colts Moneyline Odds
The sportsbooks have released the moneyline odds for this matchup, with the Buffalo Bills at -225 via BetMGM, whilst the Indianapolis Colts are available at +190 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
According to the model, the Bills are favored to win this game, with our projections giving them a 65% chance of prevailing.
Although the Bills are more likely to win, DraftKings Sportsbook offers +190 odds on the Colts moneyline, providing an edge of 0.9%. This makes it our recommended moneyline bet.
Our Player Prop Picks for Bills vs. Colts
Here, we have outlined the projected player stats for the top offensive players on each team. We have then compared these projections to the odds and lines with the sportsbooks to produce NFL player props for Sunday's Bills vs. Colts game.
Buffalo Bills Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 70 yds | 45% |
| Josh Allen | 36 yds | 50% |
| Ray Davis | 22 yds | 19% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 68 yds | 33% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 51 yds | 29% |
| Mack Hollins | 31 yds | 26% |
Curtis Samuel Under 2.5 Receptions (-165)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel Under 2.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -165 |
- Our top prop bet for the Bills is for Curtis Samuel to record under 2.5 receptions.
- Our analysis projects this prop to have a probability of 90.1%, providing an edge of 27.8% on the -165 odds offered by FanDuel.
Indianapolis Colts Prediction
| Player | Proj. Rush Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 87 yds | 58% |
| Trey Sermon | 11 yds | 7% |
| Joe Flacco | 8 yds | 24% |
| Player | Proj. Rec Yds | TD Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 58 yds | 33% |
| Alec Pierce | 37 yds | 24% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 37 yds | 20% |
Jonathan Taylor Under 3.5 Receptions (-165)
| Pick | Operator | New Users | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor Under 3.5 Receptions | FanDuel Sportsbook | Get Offer | -165 |
- Our best prop bet for the Colts is for Jonathan Taylor to record under 3.5 receptions.
- According to our analysis, this prop has a probability of 84.1%, giving us an edge of 21.8% on the -165 odds offered by FanDuel.
These NFL player props today are based purely on advanced modeling techniques that factor in variables including but not limited to past form and opponent trends, meaning you can trust that there is no bias that comes into play.
Bills vs. Colts Betting Trends
In addition to our NFL prop picks, we have sourced the best Bills vs. Colts trends to enhance your research and betting strategy for this game.
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Joe Flacco has recorded more than 1.5 passing touchdowns in 8 of his last 10 games (80% of the time). You can bet on him to record 2+ passing touchdowns again at odds of +142 (41% implied probability), available at FanDuel.
Trey Sermon Over 4.5 Receiving Yards
Trey Sermon has had more than 4.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games (80%). You can make a bet that he'll record over 4.5 receiving yards again at odds of -110 (52%), available at Bet365.
Trey Sermon Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
Trey Sermon has had more than 9.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 appearances (60%). You can wager on him to record over 9.5 rushing yards again at odds of -105 (51%), again available at Bet365.
Conclusion
At BettingOdds.com, we're backing Curtis Samuel of the Bills to record Receptions 2.5 receptions, with an edge of 27.8% marking this as our top prop bet of the game. Additionally, we're placing a bet on the Colts +4.5 to cover.
Beyond our Bills vs. Colts predictions, we offer a wide range of NFL betting resources. These include the latest NFL odds and insightful NFL predictions to elevate your betting game. Discover top picks with the best NFL bets today and dive into NFL sports journalists' insights. Plus, find the best odds and promotions with our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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