Week 3 TNF Predictions: Deebo Samuel, Darren Waller and Nick Bosa Prop Bet Picks for 49ers-Giants 9/21/23

The first two Thursday Night Football games of the year have been pretty entertaining but my hopes are not high for 49ers vs. Giants.

San Francisco is a 10-point favorite and has whopping -575 moneyline odds to win the matchup. So while we might not get a super competitive game on Thursday night, at least we have prop bets to assure the action is worth watching.

Here are three prop bet predictions for the New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football, courtesy of DraftKings on September 20.

San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Over/Under 14.5 Rushing Yards

Coach Kyle Shanahan has used Samuel in the backfield a decent amount through two games, as the star wideout has seven carries for 46 yards.

It’s not a matter of ability with Samuel but rushing attempts. Shanahan said this week that he would like to get backup running back Elijah Mitchell more involved, while Christian McCaffrey remains the bellcow.

It will likely take three or four rushing attempts for Samuel to hit the over on this prop, but I think he will stick more to his traditional role at wide receiver and do his damage catching the ball against the Giants.

Prediction: Deebo Samuel under 14.5 rushing yards (-115)

New York Giants TE Darren Waller Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

With Saquon Barkley sidelined with a sprained ankle, Waller is now Option A, B and C on offense for the Giants. 

After a quiet opener, Waller had six catches for 76 yards on eight targets in Week 2 against the Cardinals. The Giants are likely to fall behind in this matchup, which will mean a pass-heavy game script.

The 49ers have a ferocious pass-rush and quarterback Daniel Jones often chooses to get the ball out quick, and I think Waller could be the recipient of many of those passes. Even though San Francisco has a suffocating pass defense, Waller is talented enough to get open and corral five receptions.

There is good juice on this underdog play, which I think has a solid chance of hitting.

Prediction: Darren Waller over 4.5 receptions (+124)

San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa Over/Under 0.25 Sacks

I’ll take the underdog play with Waller and combine it with this strong favorite. Bosa has yet to register a sack in 2023 but is one of the most dominant pass-rushers in the NFL.

Daniel Jones has already taken 10 sacks this season and could go down several more times in this one. The 49ers have the advantage against the Giants pass-catchers, and the pass-rush is also better than New York’s line.

Bosa is going to wreak havoc in this matchup, especially considering tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a balky hamstring. 

This play is extra enticing because a half-sack will get the job done if Bosa meets another pass-rusher at the quarterback.

Prediction: Nick Bosa over 0.25 sacks (-166)

Prop Bets Record Last Week: 6-3
Overall: 11-6