Week 1 TNF Predictions: Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards and Other Prop Bet Picks for Lions-Chiefs on 9/7/23

The 2023 NFL season begins on Thursday night when the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.

The spread is down to 4.5 points in favor of the Chiefs following a knee injury to Travis Kelce that could keep him out of the contest. Kansas City is -225 on the moneyline while Detroit is the +180 underdog. The scoring total is listed at 52.5 points. 

Beyond the standard wagers, there are a variety of prop bets available for the matchup. Here are three I like for the contest. All odds via BetMGM, as of September 6.

Prop Bet Prediction: Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs under 32.5 receiving yards (-110)

Gibbs was a first-round pick in April and could very well become one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL one day.

The Lions are already talking about moving him around the formation and using him downfield as a receiving threat.

Due to that, his receiving yardage over/under for the opener is exceedingly high. However, I have my doubts that he gets there.

First of all, there is a big mental strain on rookies, and oftentimes they don’t become difference-makers until halfway through the season. That could mean a lighter workload than expected for Gibbs in the opener.

Secondly, many running backs always get offseason hype for their receiving prowess and then tend to revert to producing on the ground.

If Gibbs becomes another Christian McCaffrey then his receiving line will be justified, but I need to see it in action first. I’m going against the public and taking the under.

Prop Bet Prediction: Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery over 11.5 rushing attempts (-135)

Coinciding with the above thinking, I believe Montgomery will get more time in the backfield than many expect.

If Chris Jones doesn’t play for Kansas City, that defensive front will be looking suspect. The Lions have a good offensive line and should be happy to run the ball and churn clock as road underdogs.

Montgomery isn’t a back that will wow you but he is dependable and should be a focal point of the running game.

The concern is that the Chiefs get ahead by a couple scores and the Lions are forced to abandon the running game, but I don’t think that will happen.

Look for Detroit to hang tough in this one, which will help Montgomery surpass this rushing attempts total.

Prop Bet Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs K Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals (-105)

Even without the dynamic Kelce, the Chiefs should be able to move the ball. However, things will get a little tougher in the red zone.

He was the ultimate target there for Mahomes, who will now be counting on receivers who won't win their 1-on-1 matchups as easily.

The Lions should be able to hold firm at least once inside the 20, while the Chiefs could choose to add another field goal late in the contest as they look to ice the win.

Butker is a reliable kicker and these are solid odds for him to make two field goals or more against the Lions.