Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals: Week 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds 9/10/23

Everyone and their mother has projected the Arizona Cardinals to be the worst team in the NFL this season.

Will it come true? 

Our first glimpse into the potential depths of despair comes in the regular season opener, when the Cardinals travel to face the Washington Commanders on September 10th, 2023.

The Commanders have only been touchdown favorites once in the past five years, but that’s where they sit heading into this matchup. The scoring total is the lowest in the NFL as the oddsmakers expect a slog.

Here is a look at the betting odds for Cardinals vs. Commanders in Week 1, according to BetMGM on September 7th.

Spread: Commanders +7
Moneyline: Commanders -300; Cardinals +240
Total: O/U 38

While Washington has the superior roster, the question mark is Sam Howell at quarterback. He has only one career start and was a fifth-round pick of the Commanders last year.

The Cardinals lack talent on defense but if defensive coordinator Nick Rallis can be creative and throw off Howell’s timing, the safety duo of Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson could make some splash plays.

Arizona is expected to roll with new acquisition Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, so it will almost undoubtedly be rough for the Cardinals on offense.

Prop Bet Odds and Pick: Cardinals RB James Conner Longest Carry Over/Under 13.5 Yards

I saw this number at DraftKings and was immediately intrigued.

Conner actually ripped off more long runs than I thought a season ago, recording a long of 14+ yards in each of the final six games he played.

But he was still under that number five times out of 13 and reached a high of 14 in three others. 

The biggest thing that gives me pause is the talent on the Washington defensive line. That group boasts Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat, a quartet that will almost certainly have the upper hand against the Arizona offensive line.

Additionally, the Commanders won’t be scared to stack the box since Joshua Dobbs is not going to be airing the ball out a ton in his first game with the Cardinals.

I believe Conner will get ample carries in this game, but I don’t think any of them will go for more than 13 yards.

Prediction: James Conner’s Longest Run Under 13.5 Yards (-120 at DraftKings)

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction

We know Kyler Murray won’t be playing for the Cardinals as he continues to recover from a torn ACL, but Arizona is otherwise pretty healthy. The Commanders, meanwhile, are expected to have star receiver Terry McLaurin (toe) and pass-rusher Chase Young (stinger) available, though their injuries are something that must be considered.

If McLaurin is less than 100%, it is more motivation to jump on the Cardinals as seven-point underdogs.

Despite low expectations, Arizona is the no-brainer choice to cover, in my eyes. The game could be a low-scoring battle of field goals and field position. 

Dobbs is a career backup but if he can avoid any huge mistakes, the Cardinals may be able to hang around against a Washington team that could similarly struggle on offense.

The prediction here is for Howell to lose a pair of turnovers, which would keep the Cardinals close enough to cover. Turnovers will also help juice the scoreboard, so I like the over, but just barely.

Prediction: Commanders 23, Cardinals 17

How to Watch Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Washington Commanders will host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, September 10th, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. This Week 1 matchup can be seen on FOX.